How many seats can Congress lose if Sachin Pilot leaves Congress?


In an election year, the Congress high command is making a last ditch effort to mend relations between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. If there is no talks between the two groups, then the high command can take a big decision before the elections.

However, before the meeting, Sukhjinder Randhawa has expressed hope that everything will be fine.

In-charge Sukhjinder Randhawa and State President Govind Singh Dotasara along with both the leaders have been called to Delhi. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi will hold talks with Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot in Delhi.

In the meeting, Pilot can repeat his old demand of changing the Chief Minister. Recently, Pilot had placed 3 conditions against the government, on which Gehlot took a jibe. The Pilot-Gehlot dispute is 30 months old and two general secretaries of the Congress have lost their seats to resolve it.

In such a situation, the political corridor is asking, what is the option with Kharge now, on which both Pilot and Gehlot agree? What will Sachin Pilot do if things don’t work out even in this marathon meeting of Kharge?

Pilot’s arguments strong, Gehlot’s numbers heavy
Pilot’s arguments are strong in the Rajasthan Congress controversy, while Ashok Gehlot has the numbers. The high command also cannot take an independent decision as Gehlot has strong numbers. Rahul Gandhi has also stayed away from controversy by calling both the assets of the party.

3 arguments from the pilot group…

1. People close to the Pilot faction say that in the election year, the Congress high command, especially Rahul Gandhi, had promised to make him the Chief Minister, which the high command has not yet fulfilled. Several attempts were also made to complete it, but the work could not be done.

2. On 25 September 2022, the Congress high command called a meeting in Jaipur to pass the ‘One Line Resolution’, but 89 pro-Gehlot MLAs boycotted the meeting. Gehlot apologized on this episode but no action was taken against the rebel leaders.

3. The Sachin Pilot faction says that Ashok Gehlot did not take any action on the corruption against which the Vasundhara government came to power. Due to this, the credibility of Congress among the people is getting destroyed. The Congress had made several allegations against the Vasundhara government like mining scam, carpet theft.

No, with Gehlot

1. In July 2020, Sachin Pilot went to Manesar in Haryana with 20 MLAs. The fall of the Gehlot government was predicted at that time, but Gehlot managed to get 102 MLAs. Only 101 MLAs are needed to form the government.

2. On September 2022, the Congress sent Mallikarjun Kharge and Ajay Maken as observers to pass a one-line resolution. Before the meeting here, 89 MLAs had sent their resignations to Speaker CP Joshi. The Congress high command had to cancel the meeting.

Include all three of the 3 settlement options

Pilot’s demand was accepted – Congress high command’s first formula to make Sachin Pilot the Chief Minister. Fulfilling Rahul Gandhi’s promise, this dispute can be resolved by giving Pilot the CM’s chair in the election year.

However, it is not easy to snatch the CM’s chair from Gehlot after the September incident. Gehlot has made CM’s chair a question of prestige and does not want to leave it under any circumstances. Because most of the MLAs are also standing with Gehlot.

In such a situation, the high command would not want to create more ruckus by talking about giving Pilot the post of CM in Rajasthan.

Contesting elections on Pilot’s face Another big option to keep Sachin Pilot with the high command could be to contest elections on Pilot’s face. In such a situation, the high command can help Sachin Pilot by saying that the future is yours.

However, there are problems with this option as well. If the high command forwards the name of the pilot, then political avenues will be closed for Gehlot. Gehlot will never allow such a situation to happen. On the other hand, the Pilot group is also scared of the anti-incumbency wave of the government.

Contesting elections on Gehlot’s face- The Congress high command has another option to contest elections on Gehlot’s face. However, this is less likely. The party has lost elections twice when Gehlot was the chief minister.

Apart from this, if Congress puts forward Gehlot, then votes of many castes including Gurjar will go. In the 2018 elections, the Gurjar community, which is considered to be the traditional vote bank of the BJP, voted overwhelmingly in favor of the Congress. Gurjar community has influence on 30-40 seats in the state.

If things don’t work out, does the pilot have a plan B?

There is a lot of talk in political circles that if Sachin Pilot’s demands are not met, he may form a separate party. However, this is unlikely to happen immediately given the strategy being adopted by the pilot.

According to Pilot’s close friends, now the alliance between Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje will be revealed. Resurgence Rajasthan scam, mining scam are prominent among them. Ashok Gehlot also targeted Vasundhara Raje regarding both the scams.

Pilot has also given an ultimatum to the Gehlot government till May 31. At the same time, Pilot has also made it clear that he will not leave the Congress party and will continue the fight within the party.

Means the pilot’s plan-B will start only when the high command will take some action. In such a situation, the pilot group can get emotional benefit in Rajasthan. The political math of Rajasthan will change after the formation of the party.
The big question for Rajasthan is what if Sachin Pilot takes a different route? Congress and BJP too

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