When will this Covid Global Pandemic end ? Know the answer here

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With the wearing of masks, social distancing and lockdown being lifted and almost 18 months after the COVID-19 pandemic, everyone is anxious to know when and how this pandemic will end. It is not possible to say anything with certainty about this, but we have enough evidence to raise some realistic hopes about how this epidemic will progress in the times to come.

Kovid-19 is not the first time that a corona virus has caused a terrible global pandemic. It has been speculated that the “Russian flu”, which appeared in 1889, was not actually influenza, but was caused by another corona virus, OC43.

The Russian flu global pandemic followed for five years with about four or five waves after which it disappeared. In England and Wales from 1890 to 1891, it caused the most deaths. Possible cause, OC43 is still prevalent today but it is rare to cause serious disease.

Existing evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2, which spreads Covid-19, is still in existence. This conclusion was drawn a few months ago by many scientists working on the virus. Neither vaccines nor natural infection will stop the virus from spreading.

Vaccines may reduce the spread, but they do not completely prevent infection at the highest level necessary to completely eliminate the virus. Before the delta form was exposed, we have also seen people who have taken both doses of the vaccine become infected with the virus and spread it to others. Because the vaccines are less effective at dealing with the delta form than other forms of the virus, the risk of infection increases even after vaccination.

Within a few weeks after receiving the second dose of the vaccine, immunity to infection also begins to decline. And since immunity to infection is neither absolute nor permanent, herd immunity is impossible. This means that COVID-19 is likely to be endemic, with the daily infection rate incidence depending on how much immunity the entire population has.

Other human coronaviruses cause recurrent infections on average every three to six years. If SARS-CoV-2 behaves in the same way, it means that between 16.6 percent and one-third of people in the UK, or 11 to 22 million people, may be infected on average every year, or 30,000 to 60,000 people a day. But it’s not as scary as it sounds.

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Yes, emerging research shows that the immune defense against symptomatic COVID-19 appears to be waning. Protection against serious disease – which results from either vaccination or natural infection – is much longer. Even in the face of new forms, it does not seem to diminish.

pandemic of many ends

How COVID-19 will end will vary from country to country. This largely depends on the proportion of people immunized and how much infection has occurred (and how much natural immunity has built up) since the start of the pandemic.

In the UK and other countries where the majority of the population has been vaccinated and the number of past cases is high, most people will have some form of immunity to the virus.

In people with prior immunity, it has been observed that COVID-19 is less severe. And as more people’s immunity is boosted over time by natural re-infection or booster vaccination, we can consider an increasing proportion of new infections to be asymptomatic or, in the worst case, mild. The virus will live among us, but the disease will become a part of our history. But in countries that have not previously seen many cases of the disease, even after most people have been vaccinated, many people will remain susceptible.

Nevertheless, the important lesson to be learned from the Russian flu is that the impact of COVID-19 will wear off in the coming months, and that most countries have certainly passed the worst of the pandemic. But it is still important that the vaccine be offered to the rest of the world’s vulnerable population.

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