Once the second phase of voting is over in West Bengal tomorrow (April 29), all eyes will eagerly be on what the exit polls predict for the four states and one Union territory that went to polls this summer.
While the votes will be counted on May 4, the exit polls tomorrow may offer some hint at what’s in store for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry and West Bengal, some of the most exciting state elections in recent times.
While Tamil Nadu is waiting to discover Vijay’s potential, Kerala and Assam are wondering whether the power balance will flip again, and West Bengal, of course, is waiting with bated breath to find out the impact of SIR and whether Mamata Banerjee can hold on to her seat of power.
What exit polls predicted in 2021
But exit polls often come under public scrutiny and even outright ridicule for getting the results completely off the mark. So, how did they perform in 2021, when these states went to polls the last time?
It appears that the major exit polls for these states generally predicted a return to power for the incumbents in Assam and Kerala, a landslide victory for the DMK, then in the Opposition in Tamil Nadu, and a “photo-finish” race in West Bengal. And here’s what happened.
Tamil Nadu
Pollsters were unanimous in predicting an emphatic victory for the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, ending a decade of AIADMK rule, and they got it right.
Most surveys projected the DMK alliance to win between 160 and 190 seats in the 234-seat assembly, significantly higher than the 118 seats needed for a majority.
Axis My India gave it 175–195 seats and 38–54 to AIADMK+. Today’s Chanakya predicted 164–186 seats for DMK+ and 46–68 for AIADMK+.
In reality, the DMK-led alliance won 159 seats (DMK alone won 133), while the AIADMK+ alliance finished with 75.
Kerala
Almost all exit polls correctly predicted a historic second consecutive term for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), breaking the state’s traditional “revolving door” trend.
The LDF was projected to lead comfortably, with some polls suggesting a massive victory. Axis My India predicted that LDF would win 104–120 seats out of the total 140, while UDF would get 20–36. C-Voter gave 71–77 seats to LDF and 62–68 to UDF.
In reality, the LDF won 99 seats, and the UDF secured 41.
West Bengal
The major exit polls were deeply divided on West Bengal, with most predicting a tight contest between the TMC and the BJP.
For the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, projections for the TMC ranged from 128 to 176 seats, while the BJP was expected to bag between 109 and 148 seats.
Axis My India predicted 130–156 seats for TMC and 134–160 seats for BJP; Jan Ki Baat projected 104–121 for TMC and 162–185 for BJP; C-Voter predicted 152–164 seats for TMC and 109–121 for BJP.
In reality, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC won in a landslide with 215 seats, while the BJP bagged only 77.
Assam
Pollsters largely predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would retain power and it did.
The BJP was expected to win between 58 and 85 seats, while the Congress-led alliance was projected to win 40 to 66 seats.
Axis My India predicted 75–85 seats for NDA and 40–50 for the Congress-led UPA. C-Voter predicted a closer contest, with 58–71 seats for NDA and 53–66 for Congress+.
In reality, the NDA retained power with 75 seats in the 126-seat assembly.
Puducherry
Most exit polls predicted a victory for the AINRC-BJP alliance (NDA), unseating the Congress-led government, with the former projected to win between 16 and 24 seats out of 30.
Axis My India gave the NDA 20–24 seats and 6–10 to the UPA. C-Voter predicted 19–23 seats for the NDA and 6–10 for the UPA.
In reality, the NDA formed the government with 16 seats.
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