The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology Science and Climate Change reports that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region and central Pacific measured around minus 0.5 degrees Celsius from mid-August to early September. However, ENSO could shift toward La Niña in the last quarter of the year.
The total number of storms in the East Sea is expected to surpass the yearly average, with 4-5 systems likely appearing, and 2-3 projected to impact Vietnamese land, it said.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, La Niña conditions will persist throughout the last quarter of 2024, making storm behavior in the East Sea more unpredictable. An additional 1.9 storms are expected on average, predominantly affecting central and southern Vietnam.
In the months of October and November, northern Vietnam is forecast to experience 10-20% more rainfall than usual, with mountainous areas seeing a 5-10% increase. December, on the other hand, may bring 20-40 mm downpours, slightly below the annual average by 5-10 mm.
Central Vietnam is expected to bear the brunt of the rains. From October to November, rainfall in these areas is predicted to be 10-30% above average. Quang Binh and Quang Tri provinces may record 100-200 mm of rain, which is 10-15 mm higher than average. Regions from Thua Thien-Hue to Quang Binh are forecasted to receive 250-500 mm of rain, an increase of 30-60 mm above normal levels. Ninh Thuan to Binh Thuan provinces are likely to experience 30-80 mm of rainfall, 15-30 mm higher than average.
Rainfall in the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam is also expected to rise by 5-20% compared to the same period last year. In December, these areas may see 30-80 mm of rainfall, 10-30 mm above the historical average.
The forecast of higher-than-average rainfall suggests the potential for more complex flood patterns. Water flow in northern Vietnamese rivers could increase by 10-30% over the next three months. Central Vietnam is expected to face 3-5 major floods from October to December, primarily in October and November, while the southern regions may experience 2-4 additional floods during the same period.
The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology Science and Climate Change also predicts changes in the intensity of winter winds this year. From January to March 2025, stronger-than-average winter winds are expected, with cold spells beginning in mid-December.
Average nationwide temperatures in October are forecast to be 0.5-1 degree Celsius higher than the yearly average. However, in northern and north-central Vietnam, temperatures in the final two months of the year may be 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than usual.
Typhoon Yagi which hit Vietnam in early September resulted in 299 deaths and left 34 people missing. The storm submerged over 70,000 homes and caused an estimated VND61 trillion ($2.48 billion) in economic losses, marking it as the most devastating storm Vietnam has ever faced.
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