We’re around a third of the way through LaLiga 2024/25, with most teams having played 13 of their 38 matches. The key battles are starting to take shape, with Barcelona leading the way at the top from the Madrid clubs, while Valencia, Real Valladolid and Espanyol are currently in the bottom three.
LaLiga xG data can help to answer some of the key questions about which teams are in fair positions, and which ones may be over or under achieving based on the number of chances they are creating and giving up.
While there are other factors that can complicate things, teams currently outperforming their xG or xGA might expect to drop off slightly over the coming months in terms of the number of goals they are scoring or conceding. Meanwhile a number of struggling teams will find positives in some of these figures and reason to believe that things will eventually brighten up.
xG data used in this piece comes via fbref.com which can be used to access more detailed information for every team. It’s accurate as of matches played prior to the weekend of 23rd/24th November 2024. You can find a full xG (expected goals) explanation here.
LaLiga xG – 2024/25 leaders
1. Barcelona (31.2)
2. Real Madrid (22.1)
3. Real Betis (20.3)
Unsurprisingly given the number of goals they are scoring, Barcelona are way out in front with the highest xG in LaLiga 2024/25 so far with 31.2. Should they continue to create opportunities at this rate, they’d end this season with 91.2 expected goals, compared to 77.6 last term which was also the most of any team in the Spanish top flight.
The Real Madrid xG tally of 22.1 leaves them a distant 2nd currently, although they have played one game less than their great rivals. Meanwhile Real Betis rank in 3rd place currently, with slightly more xG than the likes of Atletico Madrid and Villarreal.
Valencia have created the fewest xG in LaLiga this term with 8.0. They’ve also scored eight goals, suggesting they are not doing any better or worse than would be expected in the final third, based on the chances they are creating. They have played two fewer games than most teams, but their xG per 90 minute stats are also the worst in the Spanish top flight, marginally inferior to Leganes’ average of 0.74 xG per game.
LaLiga xG overachievers
1. Barcelona (+8.8)
2. Las Palmas (+3.6)
3. Villarreal (+3.5)
The Barcelona xG of 31.2 is significantly lower than their actual goal tally of 40. That’s a measure of very good finishing from some of the best players in LaLiga right now, with the likes of Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal both significantly out-performing their individual xG.
It does suggest that Barca’s free-scoring ways will eventually level off slightly, and perhaps we saw the first evidence of that in their 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad last time out. However, it’s not necessarily a cause to panic for Hansi Flick and his side, given the Catalans have already won nine matches this term in all competitions by three or more goals. In other words, they could have afforded to have been more wasteful and still comfortably won many games.
It’s perhaps slightly more concerning for Las Palmas to be outperforming their xG so significantly, given they are down in 16th in the table. They’ve won three out of four since appointing Diego Martinez as their new boss, but they only created the most xG in one of those games. That suggests there has been an element of good fortune to their recent results, particularly their 3-1 win at Rayo Vallecano last time out.
Villarreal are also a notable xG overachiever. Ayoze Perez’s stunning form is largely the reason for that, with the recent signing scoring with 35% of his shots so far in LaLiga 2024/25 and netting once every 74 minutes. Realistically, that kind of form will be impossible to maintain for the duration of the campaign which suggests the Yellow Submarine will need to find other sources of goals, or create more chances, if they want to maintain their current scoring rate.
LaLiga xG underachievers
1. Real Betis (-6.3)
2. Real Sociedad (-6.0)
3. Getafe (-5.9)
If Ayoze Perez had stayed put at Real Betis and was finishing as he has been, the European places could have a very different look right now. Despite creating the third most xG, Betis are only the joint 10th highest scorers with 14 goals. The likes of Abde Ez and Vitor Roque have been guilty of some big misses for the Andalusian side.
It’s a similar story for Real Sociedad, another of the European hopefuls. They’ve only netted 11 times in 13 matches, despite largely having the better of home games against the Madrid clubs and Barcelona. They’ll be hoping one of their forwards can step up and convert more of the chances they are creating.
There’s also some reason for Getafe fans to be positive here. Despite languishing just above the relegation zone with only one victory, they have a positive xGD (expected goals difference) which suggests they’re not playing terribly. It suggests that things could improve if they can finally get last season’s 15-goal top scorer Borja Mayoral fit.
LaLiga xGA – 2024/25 leaders
1. Atletico Madrid (10.3)
2. Mallorca (10.6)
3. Getafe (11.6)
In terms of the teams who are giving up the fewest chances, Atletico Madrid are ahead of the rest with only 10.3 xGA (expected goals against) in 13 games. That’s an improvement on last season when they averaged 1.04 xGA per game in LaLiga and it’s also impressive given they’ve been missing key defender Robin Le Normand for much of the campaign.
Mallorca ranked in the top six for fewest xGA last term under Javier Aguirre, and they’ve built on those solid defensive foundations under Jagoba Arrasate. They also have the joint second best defensive record overall with 10 goals conceded in 13 matches which suggests they are most likely going to continue to be tough to break down.
Getafe’s impressive xGA of 11.6 also closely mirrors their goals against tally of 11, but it’s clearly at the other end where their problems lie.
LaLiga xGA overachievers
1. Real Betis (-4.6)
2. Real Sociedad (-3.8)
3. Barcelona & Atletico Madrid (-3.3)
Curiously, the two biggest xG overachievers, Real Betis and Real Sociedad, are also the two biggest xGA overachievers. That suggests that while they’ve been unfortunate on one level in terms of creating chances but not converting, their opponents have also been wasteful and they may need to tighten up to avoid conceding more goals as the season progresses.
Leaders Barcelona meanwhile have given up 15.3 xGA compared to a goals against tally of 12, another reason to think the Catalan giants will be unable to maintain their blistering early pace, at least in terms of how frequently they are winning games by big margins. Their xGD of +15.9 is the best in LaLiga, but it’s significantly less than their actual goal difference of +28.
Atletico Madrid are also perhaps a bit fortunate to have only conceded seven goals so far, according to xGA data, but these negative xGA figures can also be a reflection of good goalkeeping from the likes of Jan Oblak and Alex Remiro.
LaLiga xGA underachievers
1. Celta Vigo (+6.7)
2. Villarreal (+3.7)
3. Girona & Alaves (+3.5)
Celta Vigo’s xGA tally of 15.3, compared to their actual return of 22 goals conceded, is really striking. They are slightly outperforming their xG, but not by much, which suggests they are a little bit unfortunate to currently be down in 11th, with the overall quality of their play under Claudio Giraldez more indicative of a team that could be pushing for Europe.
Villarreal’s defensive figures suggest they are conceding more goals than they should be relative to the chances they are giving up. That basically cancels out their overperformance at the other end, suggesting that their current 4th place is a pretty fair reflection of their play so far.
There’s also reason to think Girona and Alaves will eventually tighten up at the back based on these figures. Alaves do still have the 5th worst xGA record of 18.5 though, with only the newly promoted clubs and Las Palmas giving up more.
Concluding thoughts
Based on xGD figures, most teams are more or less in the right area of the league relative to the opportunities they are creating and giving up, plus or minus a few places.
The biggest outlier right now though in terms of LaLiga expected goals is Osasuna, who are overperforming their xG by a margin of 3.2 and overperforming their xGA by a margin of 2.6. LaLiga’s 5th placed side only ranks 14th in terms of their xGD of -3.7.
16th placed Las Palmas currently rank last with an xGD of -10.8. However, that was also the case last season when they finished with the worst xGD in LaLiga (-23.5), but still ended up beating the drop in 16th.
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