Tight at the top – Could this be one of the great LaLiga title races?

After a club record 14-game winning run in all competitions, including eight victories in LaLiga, Atletico Madrid are Spain’s ‘winter champions’, the unofficial and ultimately insignificant title handed out to the league leaders at the midway point.

The only title that really matters, is the one that is decided in May, yet this race already feels like it has had enough major shifts to fill a full season. Following their defeat at Betis in late October, an unconvincing Atleti were already 10 points behind Hansi Flick’s resurgent Barcelona who looked like they might run away with LaLiga 2024/25.

Just eight games on, a huge 16 point swing has taken place from Barca to Atleti, completely transforming the picture at the top of the table.

State of play at the top after 19 games

Atletico Madrid lead the way, with an average of 2.32 points per game, sufficient to win LaLiga in five of the last six seasons. Their formula has been fairly typical of their stronger league campaigns during the Diego Simeone era, with the best defensive record, but a less potent attack than their two main rivals.

Real Madrid are only a point behind their neighbours, with six wins from their last eight in the league ensuring they’ve also gained a significant advantage on Barcelona, in a major plot twist following their 4-0 home Clasico defeat in October.

Three straight home defeats for Barcelona have done immense damage to their title prospects and they’ve now suffered five league losses overall, two more than Athletic Club who are only two points further back in 4th place.

While the Basques are in touching distance of the top three and remain a dominant force at home, it’s hard to see them as a serious title contenders with eight points already separating them from top spot. Trying to secure a top four finish and the prospect of a dream Europa League final at San Mames will be the primary goals for Ernesto Valverde’s side over the second half of the campaign.

The top three – What are their key strengths & weaknesses?

Entirely rational arguments for why each of the current top three will win LaLiga can be made, yet each of the sides have flaws and certain vulnerabilities that could prove to be their undoing.

That should be the recipe for a fascinating title race, not least with Atletico Madrid, on paper the least likely winner, currently holding the advantage at the top.

Atletico Madrid

The case for Atleti winning their third title under Simeone

After an unconvincing start where he chopped and changed seemingly every weekend, Simeone has stumbled on a winning formula and he has really doubled down on a 4-4-2 system with nine or ten players currently locked into his best eleven.

That clarity in terms of team selection, with the likes of Javi Galan, Clement Lenglet and Giuliano Simeone somewhat surprisingly breaking into the starting lineup, has created a situation where it feels like Atleti may have more depth than their two rivals.

Koke, Marcos Llorente and Samuel Lino were among those who could only make the bench last time out against Osasuna. Atleti’s depth is perhaps best summed up by the fact that their top scorer is not Antoine Griezmann or Julian Alvarez, but Alexander Sorloth who has scored eight LaLiga goals at a rate of one every 97 minutes, despite only starting 37% of his team’s matches.

In the most congested season in recent times, with an expanded Champions League schedule, that squad depth could prove very significant as Los Rojiblancos target their first title since the pandemic-affected 2020/21 season.

Areas of concern

A significant injury to Griezmann is still perhaps the doomsday scenario for Simeone, with the Frenchman still the source of so much that is good about their attacking play.

It’s also still largely true that Atletico’s starting eleven is not blessed with as much raw quality as those of their title rivals. They are having to scrap for every point, particularly on the road where they’ve only won one league match by more than a single goal.

The worry might also be that they continue to draw more games than Barca and Real Madrid, and struggle to go the distance should one of those two really find their groove and start blowing teams away on a consistent basis.

Real Madrid

The case for Real Madrid defending their crown

This has not been a convincing first half of the season from Real Madrid. Injuries have left them looking shaky at the back, while Kylian Mbappe has not been the transformational signing that they thought they were getting, with his presence also at times leading to an unbalanced feel to Carlo Ancelotti’s side.

Yet, despite all that, they are only a point off the top of LaLiga at the midway point and Madridistas can certainly take some encouragement from that. Mbappe has looked much sharper in recent weeks and with Jude Bellingham also coming into form, there is a sense that the individual quality in this Madrid side, which is packed full of world class attacking players, will prove too much for virtually all of their domestic rivals, even if some of those structural issues remain.

Areas of concern

With only nine points on the board in the Champions League, Real Madrid look like they will need to play the extra play-off round in that competition, while certainly Barcelona and potentially Atletico Madrid should progress directly into the round-of-16. That could leave Los Blancos needing to play as many 11 UCL fixtures before the season ends which may be a significant strain on a squad that already has holes in it.

The main holes are clearly in defence. Dani Carvajal’s injury has created a big problem at right-back, with Lucas Vazquez frequently caught out in recent games and unlikely to be capable of playing every match at the age of 33 in any case. For the second season running, they are also short on central defensive options following another ACL injury for Eder Militao, while doubts linger about what shape David Alaba is in after a year out.

Given that Real Madrid are always reluctant to spend money in January, it may well be that those issues remain even after the transfer window shuts. Judging by some of their recent defensive displays, most notably the 5-2 capitulation in the Supercopa final against Barca, a dodgy defence could derail their bid for silverware this season.

Barcelona

The case for Flick’s side reigning in Spain

When they are good, Flick’s Barcelona are very good. They’ve already stunned Real Madrid twice this season with dominant wins, with their 4-1 Champions League victory over Bayern Munich also suggesting this is a Barca team that is now capable of mixing it with the very best.

The winter break was much needed as far as many of their players were concerned, and we’ve certainly seen the Catalans return looking sharper and back at the levels we saw during the start to the season when they won 11 out of 12 in LaLiga.

Flick was reluctant to rest players during that period, at least partially due to injuries for the likes of Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Ronald Araujo and Ferran Torres. However, most of those issues have now cleared up, and it feels like Barca should be in good shape to go on another winning run in LaLiga, with their boss now in a much stronger position to rest players when they need a breather.

Assuming they don’t have to deal with another significant injury crisis, a free-scoring Barca side ought to get back on track quickly in LaLiga and if they can rediscover their early season form, they are more than capable of closing the gap on the two sides above them.

Areas of concern

While Barcelona have had plenty of joy against the stronger teams that have tried to attack them, a trend has emerged over the past couple of months, with defensively minded teams denying them space and stifling their usually fluid attack.

Las Palmas, Leganes and Atleti all won at the Estadi Olimpic at the back-end of 2024 employing relatively similar tactics. While those sides also benefited from an element of good fortune, Flick needs to find some solutions when faced with those kinds of opponents, otherwise Barca’s title challenge could be over before it has really got going.

A record of four defeats from five league matches when Lamine Yamal hasn’t started is also hard to ignore. Their dependance on the 17-year-old for attacking inspiration already feels too great and they can ill afford to lose the winger for any length of time.

There’s also still some concern about the goalkeeping situation, with number one Marc-Andre ter Stegen ruled out, potentially for the rest of the season. Wojciech Szczesny looked unconvincing in the Supercopa, with Iñaki Peña expected to continue in goal. The 25-year-old has done a reasonably good job of filling in for the German, but not everyone is convinced by him and the pressure will be on Peña to perform as Barcelona’s schedule heats up over the coming months.

How might things develop over the next few months?

In Barca’s case, nearly a month has passed since their last league game, a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid in December. It has certainly been a slightly irregular period, with the winter break and domestic cup distractions, but a sense of normality returns this coming weekend.

The top three are all in action and they will each play once in LaLiga over the next nine weekends, before the international break arrives with each side having only 10 matches left to play. This phase in the season won’t determine the destiny of the race, but it will tell us plenty about the title credentials of each of the three main contenders.

Given their poor league form, and the current standings, Barcelona are the side under the most pressure heading into matchday 20, yet perversely, they should be feeling very good about themselves after their five star showing in the Supercopa final.

None of their next six league fixtures are against top eight sides. In theory, that serves up a great opportunity for Flick’s men to get back on track and close the gap on the Madrid clubs, yet some of their recent results against struggling sides suggest that’s no certainty.

This weekend’s trip to Getafe feels like a really significant game. They will know what to expect at the Coliseum, a ground they haven’t even scored on in the 2020’s, with all of the last three meetings ending goalless. With Pepe Bordalas’ side boasting the third best defensive record in LaLiga, it’s likely to be just as tight this year, but seeing off cautious opponents at a bogey ground could prove to be a major turning point in Barca’s league campaign if they can get the win.

Atletico Madrid have to face their two main title rivals before the March international break which immediately follows their showdown with Barca at the Estadio Metropolitano. They also visit the Santiago Bernabeu for the Madrid derby in February and those results will have a big impact on how the table looks with 10 to play.

However, even were they to drop points in both, Atleti’s other fixtures are favourable enough over the next couple of months, with five of their next nine at home, to suggest they’ll still be firmly in the race come the business end of the campaign.

As for Real Madrid, they’ll back themselves to take maximum points from their next three matches against Las Palmas, Espanyol and Real Valladolid. Then comes the derby with Atleti, and an opportunity for Ancelotti’s side to put themselves in pole position for virtually the first time this season.

Trips to Osasuna, Betis and Villarreal before the break in March are likely to be prove tricky though, and this next chunk of the season feels like one that may serve up several more twists at the top, without leaving any strong clues as to which team will ultimately end up with their hands on the trophy.

All things point towards a three-horse title race that has the potential to develop into an all-time classic.