The picture of Rajya Sabha will change in 2026, BJP will benefit, opposition will definitely get a shock.

Many important elections were held in the country in the year 2025. At the beginning of the year, Aam Aadmi Party left Delhi and in November, Nitish Kumar returned again with a bumper victory in Bihar. Next year, assembly elections are going to be held in many big states like Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Along with this, elections will be held on 75 Rajya Sabha seats in 2026 and these elections are going to have an impact on the politics of the country and the career of many senior politicians. Many leaders are about to depart from Rajya Sabha, while many leaders have already started making manipulations to save their seats.

At present, the BJP-led alliance NDA has a total of 129 seats, while the opposition has 78 seats. Five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar and ten seats from Uttar Pradesh will be vacant. Apart from this, seats will also be vacant in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and many northeastern states. If elections are held on these seats, the balance of power in Rajya Sabha may change. In Uttar Pradesh, the tenure of Rajya Sabha MP Ramji Gautam of Mayawati’s party Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is also ending, but the party now does not have enough MLAs to send anyone to the Rajya Sabha.

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Opposition will face another blow in Bihar

The grand alliance of Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal suffered a major setback in the Bihar Assembly elections held in November 2025. Tejashwi Yadav, who was dreaming of coming to power, could also become the opposition leader with great difficulty. The tenure of 5 Rajya Sabha MPs in Bihar is ending on 9 April 2026. These include RJD’s Prem Chand Gupta, Ampendra Dhari, JDU’s Harivansh Narayan Singh, Ramnath Thakur and RLM’s Upendra Kushwaha are retiring. Out of these five seats, NDA’s victory is certain on four seats. An uproar has already started among the constituent parties of NDA for these seats. Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi are hopeful that they will get seats in Rajya Sabha from the NDA camp. Jitan Ram Manjhi is openly saying that if he is not given a place in Rajya Sabha, he will leave the NDA alliance. Chirag wants to send his mother to Rajya Sabha. No official decision has been taken yet on who will get the seat in NDA.

On the other hand, the chances that the opposition grand alliance will be able to win even one seat are very less, RJD, Congress and other allies together have only 35 MLAs, but to win the Rajya Sabha elections, at least 41 MLAs will be required, If the Grand Alliance has to win a seat, it will need the support of other opposition MLAs, , If 5 MLAs of Asuddin Owaisi led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and one MLA of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) join forces, then the Grand Alliance can win one seat, However, its chances seem slim because BJP has won elections several times before through cross voting,

BSP first time ‘0’

The tenure of 10 Rajya Sabha MPs from Uttar Pradesh is ending in 2026. These include BJP’s Brijlal, Seema Dwivedi, Chandraprabha alias Geeta, Hardeep Singh Puri, Dinesh Sharma, Neeraj Shekhar, Arun Singh and BL Verma. At the same time, Ramji Gautam from Bahujan Samaj Party and Prof. from Samajwadi Party. Ram Gopal Yadav’s tenure is included. If we look at the current situation of Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the picture of these elections becomes clear. In these elections, BJP may get 8 seats and Samajwadi Party may get 2 seats. Mayawati’s party BSP has only one MLA, due to which the party cannot win the Rajya Sabha elections. This will be the first time since the formation of BSP in 1984 that the party does not have any representative in both the houses of Parliament.

Sharad Pawar will also be on leave

Like Bihar, the opposition alliance in Maharashtra also suffered a crushing defeat. Assembly elections will be held on seven Rajya Sabha seats of Maharashtra in 2026. The tenure of prominent leaders like Sharad Pawar, Priyanka Chaturvedi and Union Minister Ramdas Athawale is coming to an end. BJP and NDA can win most of the seven seats. It seems very difficult for Sharad Pawar and Priyanka Chaturvedi to return to Parliament. Congress has the highest number of MLAs among the opposition parties but the party cannot win the Rajya Sabha seat on its own. If Congress unites the opposition by talking to other parties, then the opposition can get one seat in Maharashtra.

Challenge for BJP also

It is believed that the numerical strength of Bharatiya Janata Party will increase in Rajya Sabha in 2026. Currently the NDA has 129 MPs in the Rajya Sabha, while the opposition has 78 members. After the 2026 elections, BJP’s seats are likely to increase by 4 to 5. Despite this, BJP will face the challenge of bringing its veterans back into the House and giving a chance to new faces. The Rajya Sabha tenure of half a dozen ministers of the Modi government is ending in 2026. These include Ravneet Singh Bittu, George Kurien, BL Verma, Hardeep Singh Puri from BJP, Ramdas Athawale from Republican Party of India and Ramnath Thakur from JDU. The challenge before the NDA is how along with all these faces, new faces can be given a chance.

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Congress’s problems will increase

The problems of the Congress party may increase in the Rajya Sabha elections to be held next year. The tenure of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leader Digvijay Singh is ending in 2026. Congress can win a total of 8 to 10 seats including three in Karnataka and two in Telangana, but the number of contenders in the party is very high. If Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge can make a comeback from Karnataka, Digvijay is likely to get a chance from Madhya Pradesh. However, leaders like Abhishek Manu Singhvi in ​​the party are also waiting for a long time. The names of leaders like Pawan Kheda and Kanhaiya Kumar are also being discussed. It is believed that this time the party may also send some new faces to Rajya Sabha.