Vodafone Idea shares showed strength, investors got huge earnings, what is the scope of returns going forward?

By Samira Vishwas On Dec 31, 2025

Vodafone Idea Shares: Shares of telecom company Vodafone Idea have increased by about 50% so far in 2025. Bharti Airtel has given a return of about 31.35% during the same period. This clearly means that in terms of returns, Vodafone Idea has left its big competitor behind.

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Vodafone Idea Shares

Brokerage opinion: differences on target price

Brokerage houses have different opinions regarding Vodafone Idea. Ambit Capital has reduced the target price of the stock from ₹15.40 to ₹15.10. The reason for this has been said to be a reduction in the company’s short term ARPU i.e. average revenue on user estimates, which is in line with the trend seen in other telecom operators.

However, despite this, Ambit Capital believes that there is a possibility of an increase of up to 26% in the stock from the current level. For this reason, the brokerage has maintained its ‘buy’ rating on the stock. The brokerage says that subscriber growth will be the most important factor in deciding the future direction of the stock.

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Opinion of JM Financial and MOFSL

On the other hand, JM Financial has given ‘Add’ rating to Vodafone Idea and has kept its target price at ₹11.50. This indicates a decline of about 5% from the current level. At the same time, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has given a target of ₹ 10 for the stock, which indicates a possible fall of about 17.4%.

Weak position compared to Airtel and Jio

Ambit Capital says that compared to Bharti Airtel and Jio, Vodafone Idea has limited opportunities for expansion in new business. The brokerage expects the company to start adding net subscribers from FY28, but till then it will have to face several challenges.

According to Ambit, Vodafone Idea’s customer market share has declined by about 18.81% since the 2018 merger due to huge government dues i.e. AGR and difficulties in raising funds for Capex. At present the market share of the company is around 17.1%.

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Why is government relief necessary?

Ambit Capital believes that the government can support Vodafone Idea to avoid duopoly in strategic sectors like digital infrastructure. The brokerage hopes that the government can give a moratorium of two years on AGR dues.

Based on media reports, Ambit says that the government can consider not only moratorium but also partial relief in AGR dues. However, this possible relief has not been included in the target price at present.

Focus will remain on funding and capex

Ambit Capital has maintained its ‘buy’ rating on Vodafone Idea with expectations of government support. The brokerage believes that with government support, the company will be able to raise funds and do the necessary capex.

In comparison, Bharti Airtel has about 3.40 lakh towers, while Vodafone Idea has only about 1.95 lakh towers. This difference has a direct impact on network quality and subscriber growth.

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How much funding raised so far

From February 2024 till now, Vodafone Idea has raised about ₹ 22,000 crore through equity. Apart from this, the company has also recently raised funding of ₹ 3,300 crore through non-convertible debentures (NCD).

After the government relief related to AGR, Ambit Capital hopes that it will be easier to get loans from banks, because the company’s long term loan is now considered investment grade.

Further funding needed

The brokerage estimates that Vodafone Idea will not be able to pay the deferred spectrum payment of ₹17,400 crore due in FY28 on its own. In such a situation, to meet the network expansion and capex requirements, the company may have to raise further funds through equity or debt.