Macau gaming revenue rises 14.8% in December but misses estimates, raises concerns on momentum

Macau’s gaming sector reported a 14.8% year-on-year rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Decemberwith total takings reaching 20.9 billion patacas (around $2.6 billion)according to official data. While the growth reflects the city’s continued post-pandemic recovery, it fell short of market expectations of an 18% increase, indicating a potential moderation in momentum at the world’s largest gambling hub.

For the full year 2025, Macau’s gaming revenue stood at 247.4 billion patacasmarking a 9.1% increase compared with 2024. Despite the improvement, the sector has recovered to only about 85% of its pre-pandemic 2019 levels. December’s performance was relatively stronger, with monthly revenue reaching around 91% of December 2019 levels.

The softer-than-expected December outcome came despite aggressive promotional activity by casinos during the year-end holiday season. Operators rolled out entertainment events, complimentary hotel stays, and incentives aimed at high-value customers, measures that analysts had expected to translate into stronger spending.

Visitor trends offer mixed signals. Macau recorded around 3.3 million arrivals in Novemberapproximately 15% higher than pre-pandemic levelsalthough December visitor data has yet to be released. According to a Citigroup monthly survey, the recent recovery has been driven largely by premium-mass playerswhose numbers rose about 6% year-on-yearwith a similar increase in betting volumes. Citi analyst George Choi noted that affluent mainland Chinese consumers continue to view Macau as a comprehensive leisure destination combining entertainment, hospitality, and gaming.

Looking ahead, analysts remain cautious. Ongoing challenges such as China’s property market slowdownregulatory uncertainty around gambling, and rising geopolitical tensions could weigh on future growth. Earlier crackdowns on junket operators have already reshaped the VIP segment, and any further policy tightening could limit upside.

Market sentiment reflected these concerns toward the end of 2025. The Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking Macau casino operators declined 12.6% in Decemberwhile Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.9% during the same period, underscoring investor caution around the sector’s near-term outlook.