The year 2025 gave a deep shock to many political parties. The Aam Aadmi Party was out of power in Delhi, leaving the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) out of power for once. Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bala Saheb Thackeray) and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) were troubled in saving their clan and Naveen Patnaik’s party, which ruled Odisha for two and a half decades, disintegrated. In such a situation, a big question arises that what are the possibilities in 2026 for national parties ruling in one or two states or for regional parties limited to one or two states. There are many parties which have just lost the elections and there are many parties which are gearing up for the assembly elections to be held in 2026.
In 2026, the biggest challenge faces the Trinamool Congress running the government of West Bengal, the Left government of Kerala and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) of Tamil Nadu. In Assam, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces the challenge of saving its government and in Puducherry, the Congress is trying to make a comeback. After 2026, there will be a big test for Aam Aadmi Party because there are elections in Gujarat and Punjab and after losing Delhi, AAP has put all its strength in these two states.
What is the current situation?
At present, Bharatiya Janata Party is in power in total 28 states and 3 union territories of the country i.e. 14 out of total 31 states and one union territory. The parties running the governments in 4 states and one union territory are part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and BJP is included in those governments. Congress has a government in only three states and is involved in the government of two states (Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand) and one union territory (Jammu and Kashmir). There is a government of Aam Aadmi Party in one state, Trinamool Congress in another and Left in another state. The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), which is running the government in Mizoram, is not part of any faction. President’s rule is in force in the remaining state Manipur.
Also read- Marathi vs North Indian: Why did Kripashankar of Jaunpur come into limelight in BMC elections?
At present, the governments of DMK in Tamil Nadu, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand are run by regional parties opposing the BJP. BJP is also included in the Telugu Desam Party (TDP)-led government in Andhra Pradesh. Aam Aadmi Party is in government in Punjab and currently it has the status of a national party.
Who became weak?
If we look at political history, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled the government with BJP in Jammu and Kashmir, and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which ruled Punjab for a long time, are struggling for their existence. In Uttar Pradesh, Bahujan Samaj Party is going to be completely wiped out from the Parliament for the first time. After the split, both factions of Shiv Sena have become weak and BJP is capable of running the government on its own in Maharashtra. The clan of Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), which ruled Telangana for 10 years, is continuously disintegrating and there has also been conflict between brothers and sisters.
Also read- BJP is sweating profusely in Bengal, what is Congress doing after being away from power for 48 years?
Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which ran the government of Odisha for two and a half decades, is certainly boasting of serving the public for 100 years, but the party still does not have an answer as to what will happen to the party after Naveen Patnaik. After the recent crushing defeat in Bihar, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has not been able to recover from the shock and Tejashwi Yadav is currently abroad. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress may be out of power but its existence cannot be completely denied. In Haryana, both Indian National Lok Dal and Jannayak Janata Party are in a very weak position.
There is still some breath left…
Apart from BJP and Congress, among the big parties running the government, the biggest name is Trinamool Congress, which also has a strong presence in the Parliament. Mamata Banerjee, who has been running the government of West Bengal for a long time, is still showing full strength and it still seems a distant dream for BJP to breach her fort. In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party had also surprised the entire country including BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. After 2026, there are UP assembly elections in 2027 and Akhilesh Yadav is moving ahead with the slogan of PDA. In such a situation, they are being counted among the strongest regional parties.
Hemant Soren, who returned to power after going to jail, has proved with his election victory in 2024 that he still has the strength left and he can retain power in Jharkhand even on his own. Similarly, the National Conference, which formed the government in Jammu and Kashmir after the elections held after a long time, is also showing that its future is still very long and it cannot be ended so easily. After losing Delhi, AAP became more active in Punjab and has shifted its focus to states like Goa and Gujarat. On the basis of previous small success in Goa and Gujarat, AAP is confident that it will be able to expand its presence in Punjab as well as these states in the coming time.
Who is in trouble?
Mayawati’s BSP- The biggest threat is currently facing Bahujan Samaj Party. Mayawati’s party, which once dreamed of becoming the Prime Minister after being the CM of a state like Uttar Pradesh, has only one MLA in Uttar Pradesh. There is only one MP in Rajya Sabha but his tenure will also end in 2026. Despite alliance with different parties in different states, BSP is not getting success and the party cadre is getting defeated. After the return of Akash Anand, BSP is definitely claiming to be full of new energy but right now this claim is not visible in the election results.
Also read- The defeat is weighing heavily on the Grand Alliance, now will Congress and RJD part ways?
Shiromani Akali Dal-When Shiromani Akali Dal faced defeat after ruling the government for 10 consecutive years from 2007 to 2017, it was hopeful that it would make a comeback in 2022. However, AAP’s entry in 2022 spoiled its game. Due to the farmers’ movement, the alliance with BJP broke and the Akali Dal became weaker election after election. After being reduced to only 3 seats in the 2022 assembly elections, Akali Dal won only 1 seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Sukhbir Badal was opposed in the party and he had to leave the post of party chief for some time. Now the big challenge before the Akali Dal is to prove itself in the 2027 elections by whatever means possible. This is the reason why some leaders have again started talking about joining hands with BJP.
Naveen Patnaik’s BJD- After being out of power in 2024, BJD has started getting battered. Due to increasing age, Naveen Patnaik has started falling ill and no one from the second line leadership of the party has been named who will take the party forward. There were rumors about VK Pandian but after the controversies during the elections, he too is not able to show that much activity. The morale of the party cadre is low and many leaders have even started changing parties. In such a situation, it is now becoming a big challenge for Naveen Patnaik to save the party till the 2029 elections. On the other hand, Congress seems to be continuously working hard to fill this space.
Lalu Yadav’s RJD- Rashtriya Janata Dal, which claims to have a large vote bank and social equation, suffered a huge setback in the 2025 assembly elections. RJD, which looked close to forming the government in 2020, was left far behind this time. The situation is such that now many Rajya Sabha members of RJD may also have to sit at home. Apart from the party, many types of controversies are going on in Lalu Yadav’s family also. After being expelled from the family and party, Tej Pratap Yadav has formed a separate party. After Rohini Acharya’s case came to light, the sisters also left the house. Rabri Devi has had to vacate the old government residence and amid all this, Tejashwi Yadav has gone abroad. In such a situation, RJD needs to work afresh in Bihar and find a new formula.
Mamta Banerjee’s TMC- West Bengal has proved to be a big challenge for BJP. Despite putting all its efforts in 2021, BJP remained far away from power. Mamta Banerjee had once again shown her strength. Even in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mamata Banerjee’s party defeated BJP and in West Bengal, BJP’s seats came down from 18 to 12 and TMC’s seats went from 22 to 29. However, despite these successes, Mamata Banerjee will have to be extremely cautious. Mamata Banerjee, who has been running the government for almost 15 years, has been stuck on many issues. In such a situation, their difficulties are sure to increase in front of a party like BJP.
Apart from these parties, Congress also faces a big challenge. Congress has Karnataka but there is conflict among themselves for power every day. Once a mutual rebellion in Himachal Pradesh was managed somehow. Congress is definitely excited about Kerala among the election states but the vision of Congress in West Bengal is still not clear. In Assam, Congress faces a big challenge in the form of Himanta Biswa Sarma and in Tamil Nadu it has the support of DMK only.
Comments are closed.