US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Will The Verdict Come Today? Can A Decision Against Trump Impact The Indian Stock Market? What We Know
The US Supreme Court has once again deferred its ruling on the legality of sweeping tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, prolonging uncertainty for global markets, including India.
While investors continue to closely track developments, experts say even an adverse verdict against Trump may offer only limited relief to Indian equities.
Supreme Court delays tariff ruling again
The US Supreme Court released three opinions on Wednesday but did not issue a decision on the controversial tariff case, according to Reuters. This marks another delay in a closely watched legal battle over Trump’s broad trade measures imposed on key US trading partners.
The court had also skipped ruling on the matter last Friday, January 9. It remains unclear when the apex court will next issue opinions or whether the tariff case will feature on the upcoming opinion days.
Typically, the US Supreme Court releases rulings around 10:00 am Eastern Time (8:30 pm IST) on designated opinion days, keeping Indian markets alert during late trading hours.
What is the tariff case about?
On April 2 last year, Trump imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on imports from almost all major economies, including India. These measures were challenged in lower federal courts on the grounds that they exceeded presidential authority under existing laws.
After lower courts ruled that several of these tariffs were unlawful, the matter reached the Supreme Court. The key question before the court is whether the president can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without explicit approval from Congress.
Why Indian markets are watching closely
Trump’s tariffs on Indian goods are widely seen as a major factor behind recent volatility in Indian financial markets. They have contributed to heavy selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), weakness in the Indian rupee, and the underperformance of benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50.
Against this backdrop, investors are asking whether a Supreme Court ruling striking down the tariffs could trigger a sharp rally in Indian equities.
Experts: Relief likely, but no major rally
Market experts, however, remain cautious.
Pankaj Pandey, Head of Research at ICICI Securities, said any relief would likely be short-lived.
“It could provide some relief to the market, but the impact is likely to be limited. Even if the ruling goes against Trump, tariffs remain part of the core strategy, and alternative legal or policy routes could still be used,” he said.
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, echoed similar views.
“I doubt it will have a meaningful impact. The administration appears prepared with alternative amendments, laws, and legislative routes to deal with an adverse ruling,” Mishra said.
He added that if the verdict were expected to materially change trade policy, markets would likely have priced it in already.
Why the US market matters so much for India
The US remains India’s largest export destination. In 2024, India exported nearly $80 billion worth of goods to the American market. While pharmaceuticals and electronics form a large share, several sectors such as textiles, carpets, and seafood depend heavily on US demand.
In proportional terms, the dependence is even starker. The US absorbed nearly 39% of India’s timber exportsaround 37% of aluminium exportsand roughly 34% of steel exports in 2024.
Sectors most exposed to tariffs
The vulnerability is concentrated in a few key sectors. Automobiles account for the largest exposure, with exports worth about $3.9 billion falling under national security scrutiny. Steel shipments totalled around $2.5 billionwhile aluminium exports were close to $800 million.
Timber, copper, and industrial vehicles also face significant tariff exposure, making these sectors particularly sensitive to the court’s eventual ruling.
$8.3 billion of exports still at risk even in best case
According to UN COMTRADE data, India exported about $8.3 billion worth of goods covered under Section 232 to the US in 2024. This accounts for roughly 10.4% of India’s total exports to the USmeaning one in every ten export dollars could still face tariffs even under a favourable verdict.
Worst-case scenario: Over $50 billion at risk
If the Supreme Court upholds the use of emergency powers under IEEPA, Indian exports worth over $50 billion could continue to face duties exceeding 50%. The impact would be most severe on labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and gems and jewellery, which are deeply tied to US consumption patterns.
While a ruling against Trump could temporarily ease global trade uncertainty and lift sentiment, experts stress that Indian markets remain primarily driven by corporate earnings and broader global cues.
At best, a favourable verdict may offer short-term relief not a sustained market rally.
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Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience covering Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes that every voice matters, and journalism has a vital role to play in amplifying those voices. Sofia is committed to creating impact and shedding light on stories that truly matter. Beyond her work in the newsroom, she is also a music enthusiast who enjoys singing.
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