Kingmaker or blocker! How right is the Shinde faction in demanding the post of Mayor for two and a half years after only 29 seats?

After the results of BMC elections, Mumbai politics has once again reached a period of uncertainty. BJP has emerged as the largest party and its path to becoming mayor for the first time seems clear. But meanwhile, the Eknath Shinde faction has complicated the entire equation by demanding a mayor’s post for two and a half years. The question is that after winning only 29 seats, is this claim of Shinde faction politically correct?

Immediately after the results, 29 councilors of Shinde faction were shifted to Taj Lands End Hotel in Bandra. There is tight security outside the hotel and strategic meetings are going on inside. This step clearly indicates that internal tension regarding the post of Mayor has increased. While the BJP is accepting the mayor’s post as its right on the basis of numbers, the Shinde group seems to be playing pressure politics.

What is the argument of Shinde group?

According to sources, Shinde faction argues that 2026 is the birth centenary of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray. In such a situation, the Mayor of Mumbai should be from Shiv Sena for at least two and a half years. This demand is being made on emotional and ideological basis, and not just on numerical strength. From this point the tussle between BJP and Shinde group has started. On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray group leader Sanjay Raut has presented a different angle on this demand. He says that Eknath Shinde himself does not want BJP to become mayor of BMC, hence he is keeping his councilors “safe” in the hotel. This statement has further intensified the political discussions.

Hotel Politics and Memories of 2022 Revolt

There are total 227 wards in BMC and the majority figure is 114. BJP has won 89 wards, while Shinde faction has 29 seats. That means BJP needs Shinde faction for majority. This compulsion gives bargaining power to Shinde group. For this reason, a gamble has been played for the post of Mayor for two and a half years. The Shinde faction keeping the councilors in the hotel reminds of the rebellion of 2022, when Shiv Sena broke away. Even then the MLAs were taken first to Surat and then to Guwahati. The same strategy is now being repeated at the municipal corporation level, so that any kind of fraud or horse trading can be stopped.

Opposition’s mathematics and Congress’s internal strife

On the other hand, Shiv Sena (UBT) is the second largest party with 65 seats. If 6 seats of MNS, 1 seat of NCP (SP), 24 seats of Congress, 8 seats of AIMIM and 2 seats of SP are added, then the opposition figure reaches 106. This is still 8 seats short of the majority. This deficiency is giving rise to the fear of defection. Meanwhile, after the defeat in BMC elections, the internal discord of Mumbai Congress has also come to the fore. The Congress high command has issued a show cause notice to leader Jagtap, who blamed the defeat on President Varsha Gaikwad. It is clear from this that the opposition itself does not seem completely organized.

So is the demand of Shinde group right?

Politically speaking, asking for the post of mayor for two and a half years with 29 seats seems to be a weak claim in terms of numbers. But the Shinde faction, which is playing the role of “kingmaker” in coalition politics, wants to convert this weakness into pressure. This decision is not easy for BJP. Either satisfy the ally, or take the risk. At present the picture is that BJP has the upper hand, but the demand of Shinde faction has put the BMC Mayor chair in complete suspense. The coming few days will decide whether this demand was just a strategic move or is really going to bring a major upheaval in power in Mumbai.