India’s fortunes will change by 2030, becoming an upper-middle income country. See SBI’s latest research.

New Delhi: India will become the world’s third-largest economy in the next two years and an upper-middle-income country in four. SBI Research, the research arm of the State Bank of India, has released a report detailing the economic changes taking place in India. 

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This was stated in a report released on Monday by SBI Research, the research arm of the State Bank of India. It states that to move from a lower-middle income country to an upper-middle income country, a per capita annual income of $4,500 is necessary. At the current pace of progress, India will reach this milestone by 2030.

The report states that the country’s per capita income reached $1,000 in 62 years after independence. It took another 10 years to reach $2,000 and another seven years to reach $3,000. It estimates that per capita income will reach $4,000 in the next four years, by 2030, and India will join China and Indonesia as upper-middle income countries, according to the World Bank’s current definition.

SBI Research says that to reach a gross national income of $4,500 per capita, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices needs to grow at 11.5 percent, which is possible given that it has grown at an average rate of 10 percent annually over the past 22 years.