Discussion on coming together of Akhilesh and Owaisi, understand the difficulties of alliance in 5 points

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi have been in the news for some time in the politics of Uttar Pradesh. His party shocked the opposition alliance in Bihar and after that has now caused damage to the opposition in Maharashtra local body elections also. Now Owaisi is preparing to contest elections in Uttar Pradesh also. In such a situation, the opposition Samajwadi Party has become alert. Some leaders of Samajwadi Party are supporting an alliance with Owaisi’s party. Now the discussion in UP politics is whether Samajwadi Party and AIMIM are going to come together.

Akhilesh Yadav had called an important meeting of his Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs in Lucknow on Tuesday. In this meeting, there was to be a discussion regarding Panchayat elections but suddenly an MP mentioned the growing influence of Owaisi. Along with this, Chandrashekhar Ravan was also mentioned in the meeting. According to media reports, some MPs are in favor of forming an alliance with Owaisi’s party.

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Why did the speculation start?

After the meeting of Akhilesh Yadav and MPs was over, Samajwadi Party MP Ram Shankar Rajbhar was questioned about the alliance with Owaisi’s party. He said, ‘Anyone is welcome to strengthen the PDA.’

After his statement, the statement of AIMIM Uttar Pradesh Unit of AIMIM Uttar Pradesh Unit also came out. He said that Samajwadi Party has insulted his party many times and has tried to tag him as the B team of Bharatiya Janata Party. He made it clear that if Samajwadi Party wants an alliance, then SP chief Akhilesh Yadav himself should make a front offer to him. After this he is ready to go with Samajwadi Party.

Why is alliance possible?

There are still 12 months left for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections and the political turmoil has already intensified. In Bihar, Owaisi’s party wanted an alliance with Rashtriya Janata Dal but Tejashwi Yadav was not ready for the alliance. The result is that Owaisi’s party maintained its old performance but Tejashwi and Congress have almost become clean. Owaisi’s party has caused losses on all the seats where Akhilesh Yadav’s party had won or performed well in the Maharashtra local body elections.

Some senior leaders and MPs of Samajwadi Party say that if the votes of minorities are to be united then there should be an alliance between Samajwadi Party and AIMIM. Owaisi has a good hold among Muslim voters and Muslims constitute around 20 percent in Uttar Pradesh. If there is division in Muslim votes, then Akhilesh Yadav’s dream of reaching the pinnacle of power in Uttar Pradesh may remain a dream only.

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Why is Akhilesh avoiding alliance?

• At present, Bharatiya Janata Party is at the pinnacle of the politics of Uttar Pradesh. BJP and UP CM Yogi have talked about 80 vs 20 many times in open forums. 20 percent Muslims and 80 percent Hindus and others. If Akhilesh tries to join hands with Owaisi, BJP will sharpen the politics of 80 vs 20 and this may pose a threat to Akhilesh Yadav.
• A big reason for not forming an alliance is that Owaisi’s strike rate in Uttar Pradesh has not been good. In 2022, despite contesting on about 100 seats, Owaisi got only 22 lakh votes and the deposits of the candidates on 99 seats were forfeited.
• In Bihar, Owaisi had performed well in the 2020 assembly elections but in UP, Owaisi has failed miserably in both the 2022 and 2017 elections. Despite all efforts, Owaisi was able to get only 0.5 percent votes.
• Congress party is also a big reason for not forming an alliance. If Akhilesh Yadav forms alliance with AIMIM then Congress can jump into the fray alone like in 2022. Because of Raj Thackeray in Maharashtra, Congress had broken the alliance with Uddhav Thackeray’s party and if Akhilesh goes with Owaisi in UP then Congress will be uncomfortable.
• Even if Akhilesh Yadav persuades Congress to include AIMIM in the India alliance, then seat sharing with Owaisi’s party may get entangled. Owaisi’s party can demand only those seats where Muslim voters play a decisive role and Akhilesh Yadav’s party has already been winning these seats easily. Along with this, Akhilesh Yadav is in no mood to give place to Owaisi in UP because Akhilesh’s vote bank may shift towards Owaisi’s party which may trouble him in future.