Spanish title race on a knife edge as flawed top two trade places

Seven days ago, the narrative surrounding this season’s LaLiga title race seemed clear. Despite only holding a narrow advantage, Barcelona were operating at a significantly higher level than Real Madrid. Many expected them to ultimately pull clear of their rivals, who have flattered to deceive for the best part of 18 months.

However, the events of the past week have certainly cast significant doubt on that. Defeats in the Copa del Rey and La Liga in the space of five days have left Barca’s plans for another domestic trophy clean sweep in tatters.

They find themselves against Atletico Madrid, after a desperate first half at the Estadio Metropolitano. Hansi Flick’s team are also now trailing an unconvincing Real Madrid side by two points in La Liga, after suffering a shock 2-1 loss against Catalan rivals Girona on Monday.

Flick’s tactics under the spotlight after dismal week for Barca

The aftermath of the Catalan derby has been dominated by talk of fresh VAR controversy, after the officials opted not to review a clear foul on Jules Kounde in the buildup to Girona’s winner. Barca have reason to feel aggrieved, but it shouldn’t detract from what was a second deeply worrying performance in as many matches.

As Atleti did before the break last week, Girona attacked in waves in the second half on Monday, frequently finding space to exploit behind Barca’s notoriously high line. While the hosts may have rode their luck with the decision, Fran Beltran’s winner had been coming.

Despite dominating the possession, Barcelona allowed nine big chances and 5.23 xG across those two matches. There were spells in both games when the flaws in Flick’s approach were laid bare for all to see, with a number of defensive errors adding to the chaos.

The German is not going to totally tear up the playbook, and nor should he. His brand of high-risk, attacking football has not only brought the joy back for many Barca fans, but has sealed all four domestic trophies on offer since the 60-year-old’s appointment in 2024. It also took the Blaugrana to the very cusp of a Champions League final last season, after years of failure on the continental stage.

None of that should be forgotten, but Flick now has some serious decisions to make when it comes to managing difficult spells in certain games, and particularly in terms of his approach to the very toughest fixtures.

Reports suggest some players have already voiced concerns about the tactics being used, and the continued use of the high line in matches when the likes of Pedri and Raphinha are missing, as has been the case in recent weeks.

Underwhelming Real Madrid still racking up the points

While Barcelona continue to move the ball well, and invariably click in the final third no matter who starts, Real Madrid lag well behind on that front. There is an obvious dependence on Kylian Mbappe, who has scored 43% of his team’s league goals, but the pieces around him rarely seem to fit, with a lack of creativity in midfield another fundamental flaw.

Throw in selection problems at right-back and in central defence, which have been ongoing throughout the campaign, and you’d imagine Real Madrid would be well off the pace.

Not only is that not the case, but Los Blancos are actually on track for a 95-point season. That would be the joint-third highest in their history, matching the mark achieved two years ago under Carlo Ancelotti, when they only suffered one league defeat. The 2009/10 (96) and 2011/12 (100) campaigns are the only times they have picked up more.

That situation may say plenty about the current level of LaLiga, which is arguably as poor as it has been in years, with even third-placed Villarreal seemingly incapable of landing as much as a blow on the top two, or other elite European clubs.

However, a degree of credit must still go to Real Madrid for consistently getting over the line and winning matches, despite the issues that do exist. They’ve won their last eight games in LaLiga, with Alvaro Arbeloa’s 100% league record still intact.

With Vinicius Junior and Trent Alexander-Arnold both starting to produce more, the momentum is currently with the side from the Spanish capital.

The key games that may decide the title

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona are currently boasting 79% win ratios in LaLiga 2025/26. Should that continue, each team would only be expected to slip up three more times before the end of the campaign.

Therefore, every dropped point will be very significant, and the title race could come down to what happens in a handful of key fixtures.

Barcelona’s chances of getting back on track are aided by four of their next five fixtures being at Camp Nou. They boast a 100% home record in LaLiga this term, which suggests next month’s trip to Bilbao is the only imminent risk of them not taking maximum points, although San Mames has not been such a fortress for an unconvincing Athletic Club this season.

Real Madrid have tricky upcoming away games against Osasuna and Celta Vigo. That suggests the lead could potentially change hands again before matchdays 29 and 30, which will be key as the top two each take on Atletico Madrid either side of the international break. While they are out of contention themselves, Diego Simeone’s side will still help shape the course of the title race.

Those games will still be too early to be absolutely decisive, but the title could certainly be won and lost between matchdays 33 to 35, when both teams face tricky back-to-back away fixtures ahead of El Clasico at Camp Nou on the weekend of May 9th/10th. The midweeks during that crunch fortnight would also involve Champions League semi-final action should either side make it that far.

The neck-and-neck nature of things this season suggests the matter may not be resolved until the very final weekend. Real Madrid finish at home to an Athletic Club side that may be fighting for European qualification. Meanwhile, Barcelona’s final game is at Mestalla against Valencia, who could potentially need a result to stay up.