Well in front, ditch behind, Congress trapped in BJP’s trick? This plan will be useful for survival

Assembly elections are to be held in Assam this year and every party is busy preparing for the assembly elections. Big leaders of Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress are touring Assam from Delhi, but before the Assembly elections, there is sure to be a fight between the two parties in the Rajya Sabha elections. If experts are to be believed, BJP may overpower the opposition in the battle for Rajya Sabha. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma has announced that BJP will win the elections on all three seats. At the same time, Congress and other opposition parties will try to contest on at least one seat.

The Election Commission has announced elections for 37 Rajya Sabha seats across the country. In Assam also, three Rajya Sabha seats are falling vacant. The tenure of BJP’s Bhuvaneshwar Kalita and Rameshwar Teli, and opposition-backed Ajit Kumar Bhuiyan, is coming to an end. In such a situation, there will be a contest between BJP and the opposition for these three seats. No party has opened its cards yet but all candidates will have to file nominations before March 5.

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understand the mathematics of seats

MLAs vote in Rajya Sabha elections, that is, the more MLAs a party has, the greater its chances of victory. BJP is running the government in Assam and has 64 MLAs. Among its allies, AGP has 9 MLAs, UPPL has 7 and BPF has 3 MLAs. Overall, the ruling coalition has the support of 83 MLAs.

Talking about the opposition, Congress has 26 MLAs and AIUDF has 15 MLAs. An MLA from CPIM can support Congress. Apart from this, an independent MLA is also present in the assembly.

BJP’s two seats confirmed

To win a Rajya Sabha seat, a candidate needs at least 33 votes to win. In such a situation, the ruling alliance can easily win two seats but the opposition can contest on the third seat. Even Congress cannot allow BJP to win the third seat so easily. For Congress, defeat on all three seats will send a wrong message in the coming assembly elections and the party would never want this.

A few days ago, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma had said that BJP, Assam Gana Parishad and NDA will jointly field candidates on all three Rajya Sabha seats of Assam. CM said that our victory on two seats is certain and we can win the third seat also. However, Himanta Biswa Sarma also admitted that there is competition on the third seat.

Congress in trouble

Congress will try to stop BJP from winning the third seat at any cost, but to do so, Congress may get into a different problem. Congress has a total of 26 MLAs and including one MLA from CPMI, the total number is 27. The party will need the support of at least 6 more MLAs. AIUDF has the numbers that Congress needs but Congress may have to struggle for the support of AIUDF’s 15 MLAs. AIUDF and Congress are against each other in Assam, so it is very difficult for both of them to come together and that too before the assembly elections. Considering the war of words between the leaders of both the parties, its chances become even less.

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Even if Congress somehow manages to get the support of AIUDF and wins the Rajya Sabha seat, the party may be in a new trouble. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is continuously tagging Congress as a Muslim party. Himanta wants to ensure the victory of his party by calling Congress anti-Hindu. In such a situation, BJP’s attack on Congress will intensify by going with the radical Islamic party AIUDF. The party may be tagged as a Muslim party.

This plan will work for Congress

The situation of Congress has become like a well in front and a ditch behind. If AIUDF does not get support, it will result in defeat in Rajya Sabha and if support is received, the attack from BJP will intensify and the party may suffer loss in the assembly elections. In such a situation, Congress is now in a state of confusion. Independent MP Ajit Bhuyan had won the 2022 Rajya Sabha elections. BJP and NDA had not fielded candidates against Ajit but now BJP has decided to field candidates. Congress party can also work on the same strategy for 2022. The party can field an independent candidate who is supported by both Congress and AIUDF. In such a situation, the party will not be able to send any of its leaders to Rajya Sabha but it can prevent BJP from winning the third seat and can also avoid the tag of communalism by going with AIUDF.