US Supreme Court to vote on Trump tariffs as 74% odds point to illegal ruling and market volatility

The market is on edge today. The Supreme Court of the United States will vote on former President Donald Trump’s tariffs at 10:00 AM ET which is 8:30 PM IST. Traders are closely watching the decision. Betting markets are showing 74% odds that the tariffs could be ruled illegal. That number alone is driving strong reactions across financial markets.

74% odds signal possible tariff reversal

The 74% probability suggests that a majority expects the court to strike down the tariffs. If that happens it could reverse key trade policies introduced during Trump’s presidency. These tariffs targeted multiple imported goods and reshaped global trade flows.

Investors are adjusting positions ahead of the verdict. Currency markets are seeing cautious movement. Futures are swinging between gains and losses. The high probability reading is influencing short term strategies.

If the ruling confirms the 74% expectation, companies exposed to global trade may react sharply. Import heavy businesses could benefit. Domestic producers protected by tariffs could face pressure.

Market volatility expected after 10:00 AM ET

Volatility is the key word today. A court decision at this level can trigger immediate market swings. Stocks, bonds, commodities, and the dollar could all move within minutes of the announcement.

If the tariffs are ruled illegal, markets may initially rally on expectations of smoother global trade. If the court upholds the tariffs despite the 74% odds, markets could see sudden shock moves as traders unwind bets.

Timing is critical. The vote at 10:00 AM ET comes during active trading hours in the United States. That increases the chance of sharp price action.

Investors should expect rapid moves, high trading volumes, and wider price spreads. The next few hours could define the direction of markets for the rest of the week.