Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander provided clarity to the NBA’s MVP race on Friday.
The 2024-25 league MVP returned from a nine-game absence in a 127-121 overtime win over the Denver Nuggets (37-23, fourth in Western Conference), scoring 36 points in the come-from-behind victory.
The performance solidified Gilgeous-Alexander as the front-runner for the league’s highest individual honor as teams enter the final quarter of the regular season.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the current MVP field, paying particularly close attention to the league’s mandatory 65-game threshold to be eligible for end-of-season awards, the likely only thing standing in Gilgeous-Alexander’s way of a repeat win.
Key: GP = Games played; GL = Games left; GN = Games needed
The favorite
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
GP: 50 | GL: 21 | GN: 15 (71.4% of remaining games)
The 2024-25 Finals MVP can only miss six of the Thunder’s final 21 games, although after returning in top form on Friday, that doesn’t seem to be much of a concern. One thing to look out for, however, is Oklahoma City still has four back-to-backs remaining, including three on the road. If the Thunder elect to sit Gilgeous-Alexander in those instances, he’ll be perilously close to failing to reach 65 games. That would be unfortunate considering Gilgeous-Alexander has arguably been even more valuable this year than in 2024-25. Per Cleaning The Glass the Thunder (46-15, first in Western Conference) are 10.5 points better per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court than off, compared to 7.6 points last season.
Possible 65-game threshold casualties
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic
GP: 44 | GL: 22 | GN: 21 (95.5%)
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama
GP: 45 | GL: 23 | GN: 20 (87%)
Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic
GP: 46 | GL: 24 | GN: 19 (79.2%)
Extended absences have given Jokic, Wembanyama and Doncic little wiggle room to remain in contention.
Jokic is even more valuable to the Nuggets on a points per possession basis than Gilgeous-Alexander is to the Thunder, with Denver 17.5 points better per 100 possessions with Jokic than without. But he’s also already missed 16 games, placing him two games shy of being excluded from the conversation.
Wembanyama (three games) and Doncic (five games) can’t miss much more time, either. The Spurs (43-16, second in Western Conference) are the top challenger to the Thunder in the West, and the French phenom is their undoubted best player, averaging 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds and an NBA-high 2.8 blocks per game.
Doncic leads the league in scoring (32.7 points per game) for the Lakers (34-24, sixth in Western Conference), but with just 96 games played since the start of 2024-25, reaching the 65-game minimum might be a stretch.
Trending MVP finalists
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown
GP: 53 | GL: 23 | GN: 12 (52.2%)
Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham
GP: 52 | GL: 24 | GN: 13 (54.2%)
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell
GP: 55 | GL: 21 | GN: 10 (47.6%)
It’s no coincidence that three of the Eastern Conference’s top teams, including the top two, are represented here. Brown deserves enormous credit for his career-best campaign during a season the Celtics (39-20, second in Eastern Conference) weren’t expected to contend after losing Jayson Tatum to a torn Achilles and trading Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis.
The Pistons (44-14, first in Eastern Conference) have the NBA’s best record, and Cunningham, who finished seventh in MVP voting a season ago, has been the key cog of the operation, giving him an excellent case to be a finalist. Mitchell, who has missed Cleveland’s past two games with a groin injury coach Kenny Atkinson described as not being long-term, could be even more important for the Cavs (37-24, fourth in Eastern Conference) down the stretch than he has been with James Harden also dealing with a fractured thumb.
Dark-horse contenders
Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant
GP: 55 | GL: 24 | GN: 10 (41.2%)
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson
GP: 55 | GL: 22 | GN: 10 (45.5%)
Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey
GP: 57 | GL: 23 | GN: 8 (34.8%)
These three could be elevated to finalists if attrition sets in with other top contenders. Durant hasn’t finished higher than fifth in MVP voting since winning the award in 2014 but has been as good as always for the Rockets (37-21, third in Western Conference).
Maxey is averaging a career-high 29.1 points per game while also leading the league with 2.1 steals per game, providing much more defensively than Brunson, who has made up for limitations on that end with his offense. According to Cleaning The Glass the Knicks are 9.8 points better per 100 offensive possessions when Brunson is on the court than when he sits.
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