What is the effect of U.S.-Iran war on trade nearby? Everything you should know about the trade disruption

In the past 48 hours, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) documented at least six maritime or maritime-linked attacks involving drones, projectiles, and missile activity across the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and Bahraini waters, including direct impacts on oil and chemical tankers. According to ACLED’s verified incident reporting, two people were killed and multiple individuals were injured, while a missile interception over Khalifa Bin Salman Port resulted in shrapnel striking a commercial vessel. Luca Nevola, ACLED’s senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf, stated in a formal assessment that the pattern of direct vessel impacts across separate maritime zones was sufficient to trigger a behavioral shift among commercial operators. He further indicated that the key security variable would be whether the incidents remained clustered or became repeatable, noting that ACLED’s longitudinal data on Gulf maritime and cross-border activity showed escalation cycles often began with limited acts testing international response thresholds. The Oman News Agency reported that Oman’s navy rescued 24 crew members from a Maltese-flagged cargo ship attacked by two missiles near the Strait of Hormuz, confirming that the crew received medical care and were in good health. Separately, government officials stated that up to 80 bodies had been recovered from international waters following a distress signal, while Sri Lanka’s navy and air force mounted a rescue and recovery operation that resulted in 32 survivors being hospitalized, with several reported in critical condition.

Strait of Hormuz Security Risks, Red Sea Contingencies, and Global Energy Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Intensify

The maritime volatility follows the launch of Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated military campaign by the United States and Israel targeting Iranian state and military infrastructure, including facilities linked to the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and the Parchin military complex. Iranian state media confirmed on March 1, 2026, that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had died following the assault. Iran subsequently announced Operation True Promise 4, launching missile strikes against U.S. military assets across Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq, while Dubai International Airport suspended operations indefinitely.

From a trade perspective, the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz represent critical maritime chokepoints for global hydrocarbon flows, petrochemical exports, and containerized trade linking Middle Eastern producers with European Union and Asian markets. Direct impacts on oil and chemical tankers introduce quantifiable operational risks: elevated marine insurance premiums, route recalibrations, longer transit times, and contractual force majeure assessments. Nevola indicated that maritime theaters could expand rapidly during regional crises and warned that reactivation of the Red Sea as a pressure front would significantly widen both security and commercial impact.

For European importers dependent on Gulf energy and for Middle Eastern exporters reliant on uninterrupted sea lanes, the emerging pattern of repeatable maritime targeting carries measurable consequences for freight rates, supply chain continuity, and risk underwriting models. The intersection of kinetic military operations, missile exchanges across sovereign borders, and vessel-targeted attacks underscores a structural shift in the maritime risk environment rather than a symbolic disruption.