RON 95-III gasoline, the most widely used grade, rose 21% or VND4,700 (18 cents) to VND27,040 ($1.03) per liter from 3 p.m., matching levels last seen in July 2022 during the post-pandemic price shock. E5 RON 92 climbed VND3,780, or 17.6%, to VND25,220.
Diesel surged past VND30,000 per liter for the first time since June 2022, reaching VND30,230. Kerosene saw the steepest increase at VND8,490 per liter, rising to VND35,090, while mazut reached VND21,320 per kilogram.
The adjustment came earlier than Vietnam’s regular Thursday pricing schedule after the government issued Resolution 36 on March 6, introducing a flexible mechanism that triggers immediate price changes when the base price rises 7% or more in a single day. The inter-ministry pricing panel did not draw on the fuel price stabilization fund despite it still having a surplus of nearly VND6 trillion.
Global refined fuel prices have skyrocketed since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, setting off a chain of retaliatory attacks across the Persian Gulf that has crippled energy infrastructure and shipping. Between March 5 and 6 alone, the average price of a barrel of RON 95 gasoline jumped $24.2 to $116.2, while diesel and kerosene each climbed 36%, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Qatar has declared force majeure and halted liquefied natural gas production after Iranian drone strikes on its Ras Laffan facility. Israel has shut down its largest gas fields, Leviathan and Karish. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the largest in the Middle East with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, has been closed since a drone strike on March 2.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes daily, has ground to a near halt. About 750 vessels are backed up around the waterway, including roughly 100 container ships representing about 10% of the global container fleet, according to the CEO of shipping line Ocean Network Express.
In Vietnam, the price shock is hitting consumers fast. Hoang Tuyet, a resident of Hanoi, said filling up her motorbike now costs nearly VND70,000 ($2.67), up from about VND60,000 before the latest round of increases.
“What worries people is that if global prices keep swinging like this, fuel prices here could go up every day,” she said.
Concerns are also growing on the supply side. Commissions that wholesalers pay to retail gas stations have dropped to near zero, and volumes allocated to retailers have fallen significantly. Vietnam’s two domestic refineries cover about 70-80% of the country’s fuel needs, with the rest imported.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade said domestic supply for March is “fundamentally ensured” through a combination of reserves, local production and imports. Major distributors said they have enough stock to last through March and April and have been working with partners to secure delivery schedules.
But the outlook depends on how long the conflict lasts. If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, analysts have warned global oil prices could reach $100 per barrel or more, which would mean further sharp increases at the pump in Vietnam.
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