MCX Crude Surges 6% to ₹8,593 — Goldman Warns Daily Oil Could Breach 2008 Peak If Hormuz Stays Choke

IEA’s 400 million barrel reserve release is already being called insufficient. Goldman has doubled its disruption assumptions. And the technical charts point to $101–$104 next.

India’s MCX crude oil futures exploded 5.99% higher on Thursday morning, jumping ₹486 to hit ₹8,593 per barrel by 9:07 AM IST — one of the sharpest single-session moves of the year — as Goldman Sachs dramatically revised its Strait of Hormuz disruption assumptions and analysts warned that the emergency reserve release plan announced by the IEA may be too little, too late.

Goldman Doubles Its Disruption Estimate

Goldman Sachs, in a note released Thursday, said it now assumes 21 days of severely constrained oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — at just 10% of normal levels — up from its previous assumption of 10 days. The revision nearly doubles the bank’s modelled supply shock and forced an immediate upgrade to its price forecasts.

For Q4, Goldman now sees Brent averaging $71 per barrel and WTI at $67 — up from $66 and $62 respectively under its base case. But those are the conservative numbers. Goldman laid out two escalation scenarios that are significantly more alarming.

In a 30-day disruption scenario, Q4 Brent and WTI could average $76 and $72 per barrel respectively. In a 60-day scenario, those figures jump to $93 and $89. And at the extreme end, Goldman warned that if Hormuz flows remain depressed through March, daily oil prices could breach the 2008 peak — the highest crude has ever traded in modern history.

The IEA Release Isn’t Enough

The market got its emergency response earlier this week — a coordinated IEA strategic reserve release of 400 million barrels, with the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels beginning next week. On paper, it sounds substantial. In practice, ING’s commodities strategy team says it doesn’t come close to covering the supply hole.

The U.S. release, spread over roughly 120 days, works out to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day. Assuming other IEA member nations release on a similar timeline, the total coordinated flow comes to around 3.3 million barrels per day. The problem: supply losses from the Persian Gulf are running well above that figure. The reserve release buys time. It does not solve the problem.

The Charts Are Pointing Higher Too

Technical analysis from Reuters adds another layer of concern for those hoping for a near-term reversal. U.S. crude futures have completed what analysts describe as an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern — a classically bullish formation — after bouncing strongly from Tuesday’s low of $76.73.

The neckline breakout points to a target range of $101.21 to $104.59 per barrel, a level not seen since the post-pandemic commodity surge. If a pullback occurs before that move, analysts see neckline support holding around $88. The broader daily chart shows the market stabilised around a key Fibonacci retracement level at $79.77 — the 61.8% retracement of the entire uptrend from $55.27 to $119.40 — suggesting the larger uptrend remains structurally intact.

What This Means for India

For India — which imports roughly 85% of its crude requirements — a sustained move toward $90–$100 Brent is not an abstract global market story. It flows directly into fuel prices, inflation, the current account deficit, and the rupee. CLSA warned separately on Thursday that India’s LPG and LNG supply chains face acute shortages over the next 3–4 weeks, with alternate supply not arriving before end-April. OMCs including IOC, BPCL and HPCL are already facing margin pressure.

The MCX move this morning is the domestic market pricing all of that in simultaneously.

Oil prices, Goldman concludes, are expected to trend higher until markets gain genuine confidence that a lengthy Hormuz disruption is off the table. There is no sign of that confidence yet.

MCX Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!): ₹8,593 INR/BLL, +₹486, +5.99% as of 09:07 IST, March 12, 2026.