MCX Commodities Today, March 12: Crude Explodes 6% While Gold, Silver, Copper Bleed — War Premium Splits the Market in Two

Energy surges as Hormuz fears override IEA relief. Precious and base metals retreat on dollar strength. Here’s every move explained.

India’s commodity markets on Thursday delivered a stark split-screen: energy commodities surging on war premium, metals retreating on dollar pressure. The MCX snapshot as of March 12 tells the story in numbers.

ENERGY — THE CLEAR WINNER

Crude Oil: ₹8,593 | +₹486 | +5.99% The standout move of the session. MCX crude surged nearly 6% as global benchmarks pushed Brent above $100 per barrel and WTI toward $95, driven by persistent fears over Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, drone incidents near Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah field, and deepening doubts that the IEA’s coordinated 400 million barrel reserve release can meaningfully offset a prolonged Persian Gulf supply shock. Goldman Sachs has now doubled its disruption assumption to 21 days at 10% of normal Hormuz flows — and markets are pricing exactly that uncertainty.

Natural Gas: ₹303.1 | +₹6.9 | +2.33% A solid gain driven by spillover energy anxiety. With LNG supply chains from the Middle East under threat — CLSA warned separately of acute LPG and gas shortages in India over the next 3–4 weeks — natural gas is catching its own geopolitical bid alongside crude.

METALS — UNDER PRESSURE

Gold: ₹1,61,434 | -₹355 | -0.22% A modest dip that actually tells a bullish story. Gold is holding remarkably firm despite a stronger U.S. dollar — precisely what safe-haven demand looks like in a risk-off environment. The war premium is keeping gold supported even as dollar strength would ordinarily push it lower. The net result: a minor decline that masks genuine underlying demand.

Silver: ₹2,66,225 | -₹2,266 | -0.84% Silver is taking a harder hit than gold, which is typical — silver carries more industrial demand exposure, and with global economic slowdown fears building on the back of higher energy costs, the industrial component is being discounted. Profit-taking after recent volatility is adding to the pressure.

Copper: ₹1,198.30 | -₹5.30 | -0.44% The classic economic bellwether is softening. Higher energy costs feeding into inflation fears, potential demand destruction from an oil shock, and broader risk-off positioning are all weighing on copper. A sustained oil price spike historically translates into slower industrial activity — and copper prices tend to reflect that before most other indicators do.

Zinc: ₹325.00 | -₹0.50 | -0.15% The smallest move on the board — a marginal decline consistent with the broader base metals softness. No specific catalyst beyond the general industrial metals pressure.

Aluminium: ₹347.35 | +₹2.70 | +0.78% The one base metal bucking the trend. Aluminium is energy-intensive to produce, and rising energy costs historically compress supply margins and push prices higher — the same factor dragging on demand is simultaneously squeezing production economics. A modest but logical gain given the day’s energy dynamics.

The Big Picture

Today’s MCX snapshot is essentially a real-time referendum on where traders think the Middle East crisis goes next. Energy is pricing in prolonged disruption. Metals are pricing in economic slowdown. Gold is pricing in uncertainty without committing to either direction.

The divergence between crude’s 6% surge and copper’s 0.44% decline is not a contradiction — it is the market telling you that it believes this is an energy shock first, and everything else second.

All prices as of MCX session, March 12, 2026. Data reflects intraday movement amid active Middle East conflict developments.