Himanta Biswa Sarma Vs Gaurav Gogoi: Who has more power – who will be the leader this time? Understand the equation from social to politics

The Election Commission announced assembly elections in the state on March 15. According to the EC schedule, voting will be held on all the seats of Assam on April 9. Whereas the results will be declared after the counting of votes on May 4. With this, the politics of Assam is once again at an interesting juncture. This time, on one side of the electoral field is the state Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is considered an expert player in organization, administration and election strategy. On the other hand, there is Gaurav Gogoi of Congress, who is emerging as the face of youth leadership and new generation politics of Congress. As the political contest is intensifying in the state, the question is also being discussed that among the two leaders, who has the stronger political influence and who has the real edge in the politics of Assam? Come, let us know how much political influence both of them have in Assam.

What is the identity of both in Assam politics?

CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is counted among the most influential leaders of Assam politics. He was earlier in Congress, but left the party in 2015 and joined BJP. After joining BJP, he played a big role in strengthening the party in the state and became the Chief Minister of Assam in 2021. At the same time, Gaurav Gogoi is the son of former Chief Minister of Assam Tarun Gogoi. He is currently a Lok Sabha MP and is counted among the leaders of the new generation of Congress. His politics is considered relatively calm but focused on issues.

Who has stronger hold between BJP and Congress?

If we look at the electoral politics of Assam, there has been a big change in the last two decades. 2001 Assembly elections: Congress got about 39% votes and formed the government. In the 2006 assembly elections, Congress regained power with about 31% votes. In the 2011 assembly elections, Congress got about 39% votes and Tarun Gogoi became the CM of the state for the third time.

In contrast, in the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP alliance got about 41% votes and for the first time, the BJP was successful in forming the government in the state. In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP alliance got about 44–45% votes and retained power. It is clear from these figures that since 2016, the influence of BJP in Assam politics has increased rapidly, while the base of Congress has gradually weakened.

whose specialty is what?

Himanta Biswa Sarma is considered the main strategist of BJP in the North-East. He has long experience as a minister and chief minister. Speed ​​in policy decisions is his hallmark. He associated many small parties with BJP. Maintains direct contact with the public through frequent visits and public meetings. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi is considered the representative of the new generation in Congress. He has played an active and vocal role in the Lok Sabha elections on many issues.

His political legacy has its own existence in Assam. His father Tarun Gogoi has been the CM of Assam for three consecutive times. Gogoi’s politics is based on issues like unemployment, citizenship and development. Instead of aggressive politics, he pursues a moderate style of politics.

Who has the stronger hold on the ground?

At present, the organizational hold of CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is stronger. Being the Chief Minister, he has both administrative resources and political networks. BJP’s strong cadre and the support of the central government also gives them an additional edge. On the other hand, Gaurav Gogoi is currently engaged in the process of reorganizing the Congress. He is trying to bring back the party’s traditional vote bank, but at the organizational level, Congress is still considered behind the BJP.

What are the major political issues of Assam?

Some issues have been continuously influencing the politics of Assam. These include issues like illegal migration and the question of citizenship, development and employment, ethnic and regional identity, status of tea garden workers, infrastructure and industrial expansion. On these issues, the BJP government presents development and infrastructure as its achievements. Whereas Congress is playing the role of opposition by raising questions on the government.

Who has more chances of winning in this match?

If we look at the current political equations, the position of Himanta Biswa Sarma is considered strong at present. The advantage of BJP’s organization, alliance and power gives them an edge. However, circumstances change rapidly in politics and young leaders like Gaurav Gogoi are trying to strengthen the Congress again. At present, the contest is being considered to be between experience versus youth leadership, and this equation can decide the direction of Assam politics in the future.

Who has the upper hand on caste basis in Assam, Congress or BJP?

In the politics of Assam, caste and social equations greatly influence the election results. Here voting is not only on the basis of party or leader, but also on the basis of community, regional identity and local issues. Therefore, it is important to understand that the support of BJP and Congress is divided among different caste groups.

Assamese Hindu voters remained associated with the Congress for a long time, especially during the tenure of Tarun Gogoi. But after 2016, a large part of this class moved towards BJP. Under the leadership of CM Sarma, BJP strongly raised issues like Assamese identity, development and regional pride, which strengthened the party’s hold in this section. The share of Muslim community in the population of Assam is considered to be around 34–35%. This class has traditionally been a strong support base for the Congress.

In recent years, with the emergence of AIUDF, some part of Muslim votes have gone there too, but Congress still has influence in this section. In the caste politics of Assam, Congress is still dependent on Muslim and some traditional vote banks. Whereas BJP has strengthened its hold among Assamese Hindu, Bengali Hindu, tribal and tea garden communities.

For this reason, in the recent elections, BJP has been seen gaining lead under the leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma, while leaders like Gaurav Gogoi are trying to strengthen the old social alliance of Congress.

Who has how much fan following on Facebook, Insta and X?

In this matter, CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is far ahead of Gaurav Gogoi. CM Sarma has 4.3 million followers on Facebook, 2.5 million on X and 2.4 million followers on Insta. Whereas, if we talk about Gaurav Gogoi, he has 7.1 lakh followers on Facebook, 2.1 lakh followers on X and 2.1 lakh followers on Insta. From this we can estimate how much stronger Himanta Biswa Sarma is in social media than Gogoi.