Interesting contest between three fronts in Kerala elections, will the equation of power decide the local body elections?

Keralam Election Triangular Competition: Assembly elections are to be held in Kerala on April 9 and this time too the political contest is likely to be between three main fronts. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the CPI(M), the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP.

There are a total of 140 assembly seats in Kerala. In the 2021 elections, the LDF won 99 seats, the Congress-led UDF won 41 seats and the BJP did not win any seats. In 2016, the party won a seat for the first time.

Will the results of civic elections have an impact?

Media reports say that election trends in the state are often influenced by the results of local body elections, which are usually held a few months in advance. If this pattern continues this time too, the Congress-led UDF is likely to be ahead. They had performed brilliantly in the recent local body elections, leaving LDF in second position and BJP in third position.

Over the past two decades, the performance of the three fronts in assembly elections has often matched the results of civic elections. The front which takes the lead in the local elections carries the same trend to the assembly elections and becomes in a position to form the government. This pattern has been seen in many election cycles. The public verdict at the Panchayat, Municipal and Corporation levels often gives an indication of the public mood ahead of the Assembly elections.

LDF faces the challenge of saving power for the third time

Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF is trying to remain in power for the third consecutive time in this election, which has never happened before in the history of Kerala. By winning again in 2021, LDF broke the tradition of changing governments. The opposition UDF is hoping to take advantage of the anti-government atmosphere.

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Opportunity to increase identity for NDA

This election is being considered an opportunity for the National Democratic Alliance to strengthen its political hold in the state. So far the alliance has not been successful in converting vote share into seats. However, Suresh Gopi’s victory from Thrissur in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has boosted the morale of the workers and made the triangular contest interesting.