Mathematics of Bengal elections: BJP’s litmus test in Phase-1 and TMC’s impenetrable fort in Phase-2; Will BJP turn the tables?

West Bengal Election 2026: In the 2026 election season, West Bengal is the only state where voting will be held in two phases. This time, citing better efficiency of security and logistics, the Election Commission has condensed the entire process into just two stages as compared to 8 stages in 2021. But analysis of the data tells a surprising story – the political weight of the two phases is not equal.

While in the first phase, BJP will have to sweat to save its narrowly won seats, in the second phase, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is in a situation where it seems impossible to defeat it at the moment.

There is a problem on 26 seats of Phase-1.

If we look at old records, the first phase to be held on April 23 is the biggest challenge for the BJP. Out of the 77 seats that BJP won in the 2021 elections, 59 seats fall in this first phase areas. The matter of concern for BJP is that out of these 59, there were 26 seats where BJP’s victory margin was less than 5 percent.
This means that even if two-four percent of the votes change here and there, the result of these seats can be completely changed. BJP has only one seat in the first phase where it won by more than 20 per cent margin, which indicates its weak grassroots hold.

TMC’s ‘powerhouse’ is in Phase-2;

In contrast, the second phase to be held on April 29 is completely dominated by Trinamool Congress. TMC flag is currently flying on 123 out of 142 seats in this phase. The strength of TMC can be gauged from the fact that in the first phase also it had won 29 out of 92 seats by a huge margin of more than 20 percent. In the second phase, most eyes will be on Bhawanipur and Nandigram, which have been the biggest symbols of the struggle of 2021.

Majority figure and ‘scattered’ Opposition: Who will benefit?

148 seats are needed for majority in Bengal Assembly. Currently TMC is in a very strong position with 223 seats, while BJP’s strength has reduced from 77 to 65 due to by-elections and defection. To reach power, BJP will have to win 83 more seats in addition to its existing seats.

Also read: After Bengal-Tamil Nadu, Election Commission’s whip came to Assam, election officers of 5 districts changed

The situation with the opposition alliance is still complicated; Congress is preparing to fight alone, and the Left Front is in the process of forming an alliance with other parties. TMC is going alone on 291 seats and has given 3 seats to its ally BGPM (Anit Thapa).

Let us tell you that this time the elections will be held in the shadow of the final voter list released on February 28, from which more than 63 lakh names have been deleted. There are now a total of 7 crore registered voters in the state, which include 3.6 crore men and 3.4 crore women.