The Education Bureau said the schools, comprising one government and 14 aided institutions across 10 districts, could not enroll the minimum 16 students required to run a subsidized Primary One class for the 2026-27 academic year.
Deputy Secretary for Education Ida Lee Bik-sai called the figure a record high in recent years, the South China Morning Post reported.
The number marks a sharp escalation from just two schools falling below the threshold the previous year, according to SCMP.
Among the affected institutions is the Five Districts Business Welfare Association School in Sham Shui Po, the alma mater of Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu.
Eastern District was the hardest hit, accounting for four of the 15 schools, according to Hong Kong Free Press.
Of the 15, nine have applied to merge with other schools, four will begin winding down and cease operations no later than 2029-30, and one plans to switch to a self-funded private model, according to the bureau.
Secretary for Education Christine Choi Yuk-lin said on RTHK that the number of school-age children has fallen by 60,000 to 70,000 over the past decade while the number of schools has remained roughly the same, HKFP reported.
She urged schools facing enrollment shortfalls to plan for mergers rather than wait for forced closures, and said the government has established a dedicated task force to facilitate the process.
Under the current rules, schools that cannot meet the 16-student minimum must submit a development plan to the bureau. If the plan is not approved, government funding is cut within three years.
Schools were required to file their proposals by the end of March.
One school is fighting to stay open. ELCHK Faith Love Lutheran School in Chai Wan has appealed the bureau’s decision, arguing that enrollment demand will soon rise because a 1,720-unit Light Public Housing project on nearby Sheung On Street is due for completion in mid-2026, according to the Housing Bureau.
The crisis is rooted in Hong Kong’s collapsing birth rate. The territory recorded just 31,714 registered births in 2025, a 14% drop from the previous year and the lowest figure in its history, according to government statistics reported by SCMP.
The previous record low was 32,500 in 2022.
The number of students entering the Primary One allocation system for 2026-27 dropped by 4,000 compared with the year before, Choi said.
Across East Asia, plummeting fertility rates are emptying classrooms at an accelerating pace. In South Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.75 births per woman, 4,008 schools have permanently closed, with elementary schools accounting for the vast majority at 3,674, according to Ministry of Education data reported by the Korea Times.
Another 107 are projected to shut within the next five years, and total student enrollment is expected to fall by more than 800,000 by 2029.
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