Political battle and identity politics infiltration in Assam, electoral battle intensifies between UCC and Vikas

Assam The politics of India once again seems to be standing at the confluence of national issues and local equations. The recent statements of Union Home Minister Amit Shah – in which he talked about strict action against infiltrators and implementation of Uniform Civil Code after the elections – have further heated up the election debate. With this statement it has become clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party does not want to limit this election only to development or local issues, but is looking at it by linking it to the larger narrative of identity, security and cultural identity.

The politics of Assam has always been multi-layered. Here issues like ethnic identity, linguistic diversity, religious balance and regional identity are deeply interconnected. This is the reason why electoral equations are also not simple. The Muslim population in the state is believed to be around 34 percent, which plays a decisive role in many districts. Especially in the areas of Lower Assam and Barak Valley, this vote bank affects the results of the elections. On the other hand, in Upper Assam, the influence of Assamese Hindu, tribal and tea plantation communities is greater.

BJP’s electoral mathematics is based on striking a balance between these diverse groups. The party’s strategy clearly rests on three pillars—a tough stance against infiltration, politics of development, and promises to empower tribal and local communities. BJP is presenting the pair of Narendra Modi and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as a strong leadership. This leadership is trying to attract voters through law and order, infrastructure and welfare schemes.

The issue of infiltration is not new in Assam, but it is raised afresh in every election. BJP presents it by linking it to national security and local identity. The party argues that illegal migration has affected the population structure of the state and has increased the pressure on resources. By adding the issue of Uniform Civil Code to this, BJP is putting forward a broad ideological agenda, which unites its supporting class.

However, it is also worth noting that the BJP has tried to strike a balance by saying that tribal communities should be kept out of the purview of UCC. There are many tribes in Assam like Bodo, Mising, Karbi, Rabha, who have their own distinct cultural and social identity. It is important for the BJP to reassure these communities, as they play a decisive role in many seats. Promises like giving one cow or buffalo each are symbolically linked to economic empowerment and rural livelihoods, which can directly influence tribal and rural voters.

The factor of casteism is also no less important in the politics of Assam. Although the traditional caste equations are not as clear cut here as in North India, community-based politics is very strong. The tea garden labor community, often referred to as ‘Tea Tribes’, has long been an important vote bank for political parties. The BJP has strengthened its hold in this community in the last few elections, while the Congress has traditionally held influence here. Similarly, there is influence of regional parties among the Bodos and other tribal groups, due to which the electoral contest becomes triangular.

The issue of development can play a decisive role in this election. BJP is claiming that there has been significant improvement in the fields of roads, bridges, health and education in Assam in the last years. Efforts to promote investment and industry are also visible. If voters accept these claims, BJP may get direct benefits from it. Young voters in particular, who expect employment and better living standards, may be influenced by the development agenda.

On the other hand, Congress is also trying to strengthen its ground. Under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, the party is trying to corner the BJP by raising issues like unemployment, inflation and social discontent. Congress argues that BJP’s policies create division in the society and divert attention from real issues. If a voter thinks of voting for Congress, the main reasons behind it can be the issues of social harmony, secularism and economic inequality.

Another strong point of the Congress is its traditional support base, which includes Muslim voters, some tribal groups and rural sections. If this support remains united and coordination is formed with regional parties, then Congress can give a tough challenge to BJP. However, in the last elections, Congress has faced organizational weakness and lack of leadership, which it is important for it to overcome.

The Assam election is not just a contest between two parties, but it is a battle fought at many levels. Here many discourses like local versus outsider, development versus identity, and tradition versus modernity go together. This is why the results in every election can be shocking.

Ultimately, it would not be wrong to say that the voters of Assam are very aware and practical. He takes decisions keeping in mind his interests and future and not just on emotional issues. The challenge for BJP is to make its promises credible and win the trust of all sections. At the same time, it is important for Congress to present a strong alternative vision.

It will be interesting to see in this election whether voters give priority to issues of security and identity or development and social balance. The decision of the people of Assam will not only decide the direction of the state’s politics, but its far-reaching effects can also be seen at the national level.

*Kantilal Mandot*