Big upset in Keralam opinion poll! The winds of power are going to change, will the ‘kingmaker’ NDA is going to be formed?

Kerala Opinion Poll 2026: The opinion poll, which came just before the voting on 140 assembly seats of Kerala on April 9, 2026, has created a stir in the political circles. According to the survey of Materise, no alliance seems to be getting a clear majority (71 seats) in the state.

While Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF seems to be restricted to 62-68 seats, the Congress-led UDF may emerge as the largest alliance with 67-73 seats. In this tough contest, NDA became a ‘gamechanger’ by winning 05-08 seats. Can be proved. If the assembly is hung, the key to power will lie with the handful of seats that will play the role of kingmakers.

What does the mathematics of vote share say?

Survey data shows that this time the public inclination seems to be changing slightly. UDF is expected to get 42% vote share, while LDF may get 39% vote share. The biggest jump is being seen in the account of NDA, which is expected to get 15% vote share. In the 2021 elections, LDF had achieved a huge majority by winning 99 seats, while NDA’s account was not even opened.
But this time, the NDA with 15% vote share has the power to deeply influence the election results of the state. Political analysts believe that while the LDF will file its ‘Progress Report’ While the UDF is trying to score a hat-trick on its own, the UDF is trying its best to end the drought of 15 years of power.

Congress dominates in Malabar and Left dominates in the south.

This time too, a clear divide is visible between North and South in the geographical politics of Kerala.
Malabar Region: Here UDF is in a very strong position and may get 25-27 seats, while LDF may have to be satisfied with 20-22 seats.
South Keralam: The Left’s fort still seems safe in this part, where LDF is expected to get 23-26 seats, while UDF can remain between 20-23 seats.
This regional balance will decide who will sit on the throne of Thiruvananthapuram when the votes are counted on May 4.

Also read: There will be a ‘brake’ on political noise today, election campaign will stop in 3 states; Nomination of veterans in Tamil Nadu today

Election campaign will stop today

In the last phase of the election campaign, all the parties have made sharp attacks on each other. Congress and Rahul Gandhi have alleged that there is an ‘agreement’ between BJP and CPI(M). While Chief Minister P. Vijayan has claimed that his government has fulfilled 97% of the promises for 2021. Home Minister Amit Shah has also heated up the atmosphere by holding a road show for the NDA candidates. 2.71 crore voters of the state will now decide the fate of 890 candidates in EVMs on April 9.