After the election battle that lasted for about a month in four states and one union territory, the political picture is gradually becoming clear. The exit polls that came as soon as voting ended have intensified the stir in the country’s politics. At some places there are signs of continuity in power and at some places the sounds of change are clearly heard.
Most eyes are on West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where the contest looks very interesting and unpredictable. There are indications of a strong comeback of BJP in Assam, while the possibility of change of power is being expressed in Kerala.
Will Mamata Banerjee’s fort be broken in Bengal?
West Bengal remains the biggest center of election battle this time. According to exit polls, the contest here is very tough. Some surveys are showing 146 to 175 seats for BJP, while some polls have claimed a big victory for Trinamool Congress (TMC). People’s Pulse has given TMC 177-187 seats, while Janmat Polls has predicted 195-205 seats. In such a situation, the picture is not completely clear and the possibility of a “hung assembly” is also being expressed in the state.
This time BJP gave its full strength in Bengal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held more than 20 rallies, while Home Minister Amit Shah also camped for a long time. The party hopes that issues like corruption, unemployment and women’s safety can benefit it.
Will BJP score a hat-trick of victories in Assam?
Exit polls in Assam seem almost one-sided. Most of the surveys are predicting the return of BJP government. In the 126-seat assembly, BJP is expected to get around 85-90 seats, while Congress may be limited to 25-30 seats. If these figures prove to be correct, then Himanta Biswa Sarma can become Chief Minister for the second consecutive time. BJP fought the elections on the slogan of “Jati, Mati, Bheti” and development works, while Congress emphasized on anti-incumbency.
What will change the political equation in Tamil Nadu?
This time the contest in Tamil Nadu has taken an interesting turn. According to exit polls, DMK may make a comeback and may get around 130 seats. Whereas the AIADMK alliance is estimated to have around 65 seats. But the biggest discussion of this election has been actor Vijay’s party TVK. Most of the surveys are giving 25-35 seats to TVK, but Axis My India has surprisingly estimated 98-120 seats. If this happens, the politics of the state can change completely. Vijay entered politics in 2024 and has become increasingly popular among the youth. His entry has shaken the traditional equation of DMK-AIADMK.
Will the rule of Left end in Kerala?
This time there is a possibility of change of power in Kerala. According to exit polls, the Congress-led UDF may win around 70-77 seats, while the Left Front may be limited to 55-60 seats. If these estimates prove to be correct, then Pinarayi Vijayan’s government may face a major setback. Kerala is the only state in the country where the Left government is in power, so this defeat can have a big impact at the national level as well.
Whose government in Puducherry?
Exit polls in Puducherry are indicating the return of NDA. The AINRC-BJP alliance seems to be getting a clear lead, while the Congress-DMK alliance seems to be lagging behind. Here also the voting percentage was very high, which made the contest interesting, but the final results seem to be in favor of NDA.
Do exit polls tell the full picture?
Exit polls only show possibilities, not final results. Many times these estimates have also proved wrong. Therefore, only the results coming on May 4 will clear the real picture. At present, it is clear from these figures that voters have given different messages in different states of the country. Somewhere there is stability, somewhere there is change.
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