Business Desk – Dollar-Rupee Today: On Monday (May 4), the Indian rupee opened at 94.95 against the US dollar, a decline of 4 paise from its previous close of 94.91 on Thursday (April 30). The currency market reacted to rising crude oil prices and continued outflow of foreign funds. In the previous session, the local currency had closed at 94.91 after touching an all-time low of 95.33. Domestic financial markets remained closed on Friday (1 May).
Crude oil prices fell slightly during early hours of Asian trading after the US announced it would begin efforts to free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said the move was aimed at reducing difficulties for neutral countries. However, he gave only limited details about the matter.
Brent crude July futures fell to a low of $105.50 per barrel, after which it traded near $108. Traders are closely monitoring the developments in the US-Iran talks. Despite the temporary relief in oil prices, analysts predict that the lack of progress in geopolitical negotiations will limit the decline in crude oil prices, resulting in continued volatility in energy markets.
The rupee has been under pressure in recent sessions, falling by about 2% in the last eight trading days. This weakness reflects the impact of higher oil prices, which have intensified hedging activity among importers. There has been a steady demand for dollars from oil refiners. Inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have also put pressure on the currency. In April, Indian equity markets saw outflows of about $6.5 billion, taking total outflows for 2026 to about $20.6 billion.
This figure has already crossed last year’s levels. Market participants said the short-term outlook for the rupee remains challenging due to weak sentiment, persistent capital outflows and pressure emanating from the forward book position of the Reserve Bank of India.
Rupee Outlook
According to Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team of CR Forex Advisors, the rupee is currently at a critical juncture. Not only technically, but also psychologically. He indicated that the range of 95.20–95.30 could act as a strong short-term resistance zone. Looking at the current market conditions, Pabari sees a strong possibility that the rupee may come back to the level of 94.20-93.80.
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