The politics of Western Uttar Pradesh has always been interesting, but the equation of Thakurdwara Assembly Seat of Moradabad district is something that forces big political leaders to think. In fact, the history of the last two decades is witness to the fact that even though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has strengthened its ground here and continuously increased its vote percentage, crossing the threshold of electoral victory still remains a big challenge for it. There is a strong discussion in the political circles that if BJP wants to win here in the 2027 assembly elections, then it will have to change its strategy of relying only on its traditional vote bank.
In fact, the social fabric of Thakurdwara seat is such that it is becoming impossible to sail only with the help of polarization of Hindu votes. Local analysts believe that if BJP wants to taste victory on this seat, then it will have to increase its acceptance among a section of the Muslim society. Without this, it is not going to be easy for the saffron party to conquer Thakurdwara fort.
Mathematics of Thakurdwara Assembly seat: Disappointment occurred despite increase in votes.
If we look at the data of the last election i.e. 2022, the picture becomes clear to a great extent. In that election, Nawab Jaan of Samajwadi Party (SP) had won by getting 48.76% votes, while Ajay Pratap Singh of BJP stood second with 41.62% votes. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was limited to just 8.04% votes and Owaisi’s party AIMIM was far from even opening its account. It is being told that in 2022, Muslim voters unilaterally supported SP, which put a brake on the growing pace of BJP.
Interestingly, in the 2017 elections, BJP got about 36.84% votes, which increased to 41% in 2022. That means the party increased the votes by about 5 percent. But despite this, the trophy of victory went to SP’s account because SP’s vote share also increased to about 49%. According to local people, BJP’s increasing vote percentage also proved inadequate due to the end of the disunity of opposition parties and Muslim votes uniting towards SP.
Changed mood of Muslim votes and new strategy of BJP
There was a time when the minority vote bank in Thakurdwara was not considered to be the inheritance of any one party. If we turn the pages of history, in the year 2007, Congress had got more than 23 percent votes here. At the same time, in the 2012 elections, both Congress and Mahan Dal got 21-21% votes. BSP also remained a strong player here for a long time on the basis of its Dalit-Muslim alliance. That is, then Muslim votes were divided among different parties, due to which other parties got the benefit. But after the 2014 by-elections, the tide changed and SP gradually became the first choice of Muslim voters. By 2022, this polarization had become so strong that it became difficult for the BJP to make a dent in it.
Now the question is how will BJP break this cycle? However, the party’s core vote bank—which includes upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and a section of Dalits—is quite strong. But to reach the magic figure of victory, the party needs 3 to 4 percent additional votes. This is the reason why this time BJP has made a big change in its strategy.
Contenders sweating on the ground, trying to dialogue on the issue of development
There is a heated discussion in the regional political circles that the two main ticket contenders from BJP—Amit Chauhan and Ajay Pratap Singh—have already become active among the public. According to the local people, both these leaders are not missing any opportunity to participate in the joys and sorrows of the Muslim society. Be it any social program, business meeting or religious and local issues, the activism of these leaders is clearly visible even in Muslim dominated areas. Amit Chauhan and Ajay Pratap are trying hard to establish dialogue especially among the young Muslim community.
In fact, this step of BJP shows that it no longer wants to sit idle relying only on the politics of polarization. Political experts believe that if the party talks keeping local issues, law and order, business, education and employment at the forefront instead of just harping on old lines, then a large section of the minority community, especially businessmen and youth, can be influenced. Many Muslim businessmen at the local level have also started openly discussing development issues.
Ultimately, only time will tell in whose name the battle of the year 2027 will be held, but it is certain that the contest on Thakurdwara assembly seat is going to be very tough and interesting. Ticket distribution will also prove to be a big X-factor in this. If BJP bets on a face whose image is acceptable to the entire society, then the tables can turn. While the challenge for SP will be to retain its ground, the real test for BJP will be to break the one-sided polarization of Muslim votes, which has been a hindrance in its path for the last several elections.
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