The beginning of recession in gold and silver prices! Disappointment for investors, good news for buyers, fall of 23% to 44%

Vishnu Bhardwaj@Obnews

After the record-breaking rise in the prices of both precious metals, gold and silver, now clear signs of recession are visible. While gold has fallen by $ 1290 per ounce i.e. 23% from the high levels in the global markets, silver has fallen by $ 54 per ounce i.e. 44%. After such a huge decline, it is clear that the bullish phase has ended and this year, there seems to be more possibility of recession rather than bullishness. This is disappointing news for investors, but it will be considered good news for jewelery lovers.
Prices were at historic high in January

In the last week of January this year, for the first time in the global market, gold reached a historic high of $ 5625 per ounce and silver reached a historic high of $ 122 per ounce. Due to the impact of the global boom, gold had reached a record high of Rs 1.82 lakh per ten grams and silver of Rs 4.27 lakh per kg in the Indian markets, but the prices could not hold on to these upper levels and due to all-round profit-booking globally, the prices came down within a week. There has been more bearishness in silver from upper levels in the Indian market. The reason for this was the high emphasis on betting here.

Now the perception of falling prices

For the last three months, gold was in a limited range of 4500 to 4900 dollars and silver was in a limited range of 70 to 88 dollars, but now pressure is visible on the prices. Gold has fallen below $4400 and silver below $70. Whereas in Mumbai, gold has come at Rs 1.53 lakh per ten grams and silver at Rs 2.50 lakh per kg. Now the question in everyone’s mind is whether the prices will rise again soon or may the prices fall further.

Difficult to make profit this year

If we look at historical data, both the metals are bullish in some years and bearish in some years. After the recession in the year 2021, there was a tremendous rise in both the metals in the last 4 years. After negative returns in the year 2021, gold and silver rose by 14% and 11% respectively in 2022. In 2023 also, returns of 15% and 10% were received respectively. Similarly, in 2024, good returns of 21% and 18% were obtained respectively and in 2025, the momentum reached its peak and huge returns of 79% and 168% were obtained respectively. After tremendous growth in the last 4 years, there has been a decline of 5% and 16% respectively so far this year. Looking at the pressure on prices in the global markets, an impression is being formed that the bullish days of gold and silver are over and it seems difficult to get returns in both the metals this year.

Investors surprised by recession in war

At the global level, every time a war breaks out somewhere in the world, the Gold-Silver rate increases for safe investment, but in the US-Israel-Iran war, the opposite happened and despite the war, there was a recession in both the precious metals for the first time, investors were surprised. The main reason for this was that due to continuous Iranian attacks on Arab countries, gold business in the world’s largest gold market Dubai and other Arab countries had come to a standstill and for the first time the price of gold had come at a discount.

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Gold can cost up to Rs 1.40 lakh

Jewelmakers Welfare Association President Sanjay Shah says that after 4 years of growth, there is no possibility of growth this year. Due to increasing trade deficit, the Indian government has significantly increased the import duty on gold and silver. Due to which the demand has decreased. Since India is a big consumer country and the decline in demand here will put pressure on prices globally. Our estimate is that gold may come down to Rs 1.40 lakh and silver to Rs 2.25 lakh.