Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Kept out of the US-Iran ‘peace deal,’ a furious Israel has vowed to continue its war against Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon but even among the deal-makers no one is sure whether Washington and Tehran would, after all, sign their agreement in Switzerland on June 19, the media reported on Tuesday.
Given deepening faultlines and shifting goalposts, several US lawmakers, cutting across party lines, and even the CIA, are doubtful whether the two countries would keep the deal’s sanctity for long, if at all it gets signed in Switzerland on Friday.
Even in Iran, where the power hierarchy is unclear, some voices, including that of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have protested against the ‘unfair’ deal, are preparing for the next round of conflict, and declared that war is only a trigger away.
The deal, announced by both the US and Iran on Monday, promises to end the 108-day-old conflict but nobody knows if it would work at all.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the US and Iran, although details have yet to be made public, and both countries said a permanent truce was yet to be negotiated.
Negotiators would address difficult issues like the future of Iran’s nuclear program during the next phase of talks to be held during the 60-day window.
Lack of confidence
But doubts swirled around the US-Iran interim deal to end the war in the West Asia as shippers said it could take weeks for confidence to return after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and fundamental questions remained unanswered. In the last more than three months of the war, thousands of ships and sailors have remained stranded in the Persian Gulf and several died in cross-firing.
The interim agreement would extend a tenuous ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, launching the fierce war.
Two other issues that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used to justify the war—ending Iran’s support for regional armed proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, and curbing Tehran’s missile program—are not believed to be on the agenda for those negotiations.
“The deal’s all signed,” Trump proclaimed after he arrived in France for a summit of the G-7 group of major economies. He said Vice President JD Vance would attend a formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday.
crude prices
Reacting positively to the likely truce, however short-lived, world markets bounced back and crude oil prices fell on Monday to their lowest level since March 10, shortly after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, cut off one-fifth of the global oil trade.
But on Tuesday the price steadied, reflecting a more cautious stance, with Brent crude futures sliding 0.3 per cent to USD 82.96 a barrel in Asian trading hours.
In any case, the media said, the deal is the most significant step yet to resolve the conflict, which has killed at least 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and upended global energy markets.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on social media on Monday that the interim agreement was an “important step” toward stopping the conflict but noted a final deal for a lasting truce “has yet to take shape.”
Vance told cnn that the signed memorandum was a “very general document.” Details would be released over the next two days, US officials said.
It included “a very significant sanctions relief package” for Iran. He told later Fox News that Trump may decide to release the agreement before Friday.
Amid contradictory and confusing statements, some US and Iranian officials say it could eventually deliver substantial economic benefits to Iran by lifting sanctions, unfreezing foreign assets and setting up a USD 300 billion reconstruction fund, paid for by neighboring Gulf states, which host US military bases, and have, therefore, suffered the Iranian attacks the most.
Trump officials said Iran would have to satisfy US demands never to build a nuclear weapon and cut off support for militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon to get those benefits.
Iranian officials, who have always denied intending to build a nuclear weapon, say they have given up little by agreeing to resume diplomatic discussions over Iran’s uranium enrichment program that were interrupted by the war.
Rebuilding confidence
While the latest agreement could lift Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, that only restores the prewar status quo, and shippers say traffic will only restart once they are satisfied they can transit safely.
Iran has suggested it will retain control with Oman over the strait. The US said the strait will be open toll-free for 60 days and it would expect that provision to be part of a final agreement.
Trump said in a Truth Social post that ships loaded with oil were starting to move out of the strait, “going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine.”
Israel’s NO!
The fighting between US ally Israel and the Iran-allied Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, which has uprooted 1.2 million people, remains another key sticking point.
Iran has said the deal requires a full cessation of hostilities there, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would keep its forces in southern Lebanon and would retain the right to respond to Hezbollah attacks.
“Iran wanted us to withdraw from Lebanon, but I stood firm,” he said on Monday at a news conference. Israel has not directly participated in the peace talks with Iran.
A US official said an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, which it invaded in March after Hezbollah joined the war, was not a condition of the deal.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Israeli attacks must stop immediately.
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