Stock Market Outlook Today: Will Sensex, Nifty Extend Winning Streak?

Stock Market Outlook Today: Indian benchmark indices are expected to open slightly higher on Friday, June 19, supported by firm global cues and a marginally higher GIFT Nifty. However, after a strong five-session rally that has lifted the Nifty by nearly 1,000 points, traders may remain cautious for signs of profit booking, even as the broader trend continues to favour the bulls. The GIFT Nifty was up 13 points or 0.05%, quoted at 24,002 at 7:27 am, suggesting a flat to positive opening for Dalal Street. The futures contract opened at 23,984 against the previous close of 23,989.

Indian equities ended higher on Thursday, with volatility due to the weekly expiry of the Sensex. Buying late in the last hour took the indices near to their day’s highs. The BSE Sensex was up 255 points or 0.33 per cent, at 77,409, while the NSE Nifty 50 added 82 points or 0.34 per cent, to 24,168, extending its winning streak to five straight sessions.

Can Nifty sustain its breakout above 24000?

Technically, the structure continues to hold up after Nifty broke above a falling channel that had capped gains over the last two months. The formation of higher highs and higher lows indicates that the uptrend remains intact.

As long as the index stays above the key 24,000 mark, the near-term bias continues to remain positive, Bajaj Broking Research said. The broking expects Nifty to trade higher in the near term towards 24,270 and 24,350.

According to Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, Univest, the break above the previous swing high seen in late May has also improved the technical outlook, with the index potentially heading towards the April peak of around 24,600 over the coming weeks.

That said, some consolidation or profit booking may occur after a sharp rally over the past five sessions. Analysts continue to advise buying fundamentally strong stocks on any short-term correction.

Nifty 50 levels to watch
Support 24,000, 23,900, 23,800
Resistance: 24,200, 24,300-24,350

The current uptrend would remain intact as long as the downside break of 24,000 does not occur. A dip below 23900 can trigger profit booking in the short term.

Bank Nifty remains above key support

In the recent trade, Bank Nifty has performed decently and has even crossed the 58,000 mark. The index has created yet another higher high/higher low formation, indicating that there is still buying interest in bank stocks.

Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, notes that a major positive development on the technical front is the crossing of the 20-day exponential moving average above the 50-day exponential moving average, which is considered a positive momentum indicator.

In the coming weeks, Bajaj Broking Research expects Bank Nifty to gradually move towards 58,300 and then to 59,250 levels.

Despite the banking index having rallied nearly 5,000 points in the last 13 sessions, analysts believe any corrective phase should be viewed as a buying opportunity and not a trend reversal.

Bank Nifty Levels To Watch
Support: 57,600, 57,300, 57,000
Resistance: 58,000-58,100 and 58,400-58,500

Bank Nifty is expected to hold a positive bias only above 57,600. A decisive move above 58,100 could open up the upside.

Wall Street recovers as global markets rebound

Wall Street bounced back sharply from losses in the previous session that were driven by the US Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and sentiment around the world improved.

The S&P 500 added 1.19 per cent at 7,508.44 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5 per cent at the opening bell, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose nearly 400 points, with investors welcoming the de-escalation of geopolitical concerns following the closing of a deal with Iran. The rebound in US stocks should lift sentiment throughout Asian markets on Friday.

Crude oil plunges sharply

Oil prices are another positive trigger for Indian equities.

Brent crude was trading near $79.5 a barrel on Friday. WTI crude was around $75.65. Both benchmarks are heading for their worst weekly fall in several months, as concerns over supply disruptions have subsided after progress in reopening shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran deal.

Lower crude prices are generally beneficial for India, as it helps in easing inflationary pressures, improves the current account balance and reduces input costs for several sectors.

Fed outlook still calls for caution

However, global risk sentiment might not lift off dramatically even after the US Federal Reserve decided not to increase interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range and signalled it might continue policy tightening if inflation remains persistent. Elevated Treasury yields and a robust US dollar are likely to impact FII flows into emerging markets, including India.

Investors will be watching global bond yields and currency movements over the next few sessions.

Today’s support & resistance levels for the Sensex

As long as Sensex remains above the 77,000 level, the positive structure is likely to persist. Support: 77,000 followed by 76,700. Resistance: 77,500 and then 77,800-78,000. The benchmark will gain more momentum with a decisive break above 77,500, opening it up for 78,000 – a psychological benchmark.

Stock market outlook for today

On Dalal Street, the sentiment looks constructive going into the trading session for Friday. Positive global signals, lower crude oil prices, and technical factors seem to be supporting the upward trajectory of the equity markets. But traders may experience phases of consolidation or profit booking on the higher side following the recent sharp rally. If Nifty is able to trade above 24,000 and Bank Nifty is able to trade above 57,600, we believe the broader market bias remains on the positive side. Stock-picking opportunities could be in demand over the broad market.

(Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The views, opinions, and recommendations expressed herein are those of the respective experts. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.)

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