Vivek Saxena, Ayodhya
El Nino and weak monsoon have become a matter of concern for India’s economy, leading to rising food prices and the risk of inflation. It is still early days, but the monsoon situation has not been good so far. Kharif sowing has got off to a weak start with a 35-40 per cent shortage across India in June (IMD has estimated a 10 per cent shortage for the season across the country), although there are no worries about food supplies as the government is estimated to have around five million tonnes of pulses stock.
The future of monsoon remains uncertain. Moreover, the impact of monsoon deficiency on production depends on its geographical and temporal distribution. An acute shortage in irrigated areas is not likely to cause as much damage as a similar event in rain-fed areas. In this situation of uncertainty, it is best for all organs of the state machinery, from the Center to the states and districts, including banks, to be prepared. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan held a meeting recently to deal with the possibility of drought in view of the deficiency in monsoon due to El Nino effect. In this, those 315 districts were identified which could be most affected.
There are 111 such districts in these districts, where the impact of drought can be much greater. Undoubtedly, reduction in rainfall is a serious challenge for an agricultural country like India. The fear of drought will not only increase the problems of the farmers, but the common man can also be affected due to the increase in cost of grains as a result of weak crops. The challenge will not only arise in the form of lack of irrigation water, but the drinking water crisis may also increase in some areas of the country. Anyway, many parts of the country face this problem during summer.
There was a time when for farmers and Indians, rains were a season of joy. The fields as well as the streets and roads used to be filled with water; today, the arrival of monsoon is awaited. Every class is worried. Delayed or weak monsoon no longer affects only farmers. It now affects food prices, electricity bills, income, inflation and even economic decisions taken by the Reserve Bank of India. With scientists warning of El Nino conditions developing over the Pacific Ocean, there is growing concern that this weather event could turn into a huge economic challenge.
Uncontrolled industrialization, deforestation and carbon emissions have affected our climate to such an extent that the weather cycles have been completely disrupted. Environmental protection is no longer just a matter of theoretical discussion but has become an urgent need. The consequences of global warming are clear to us today. At some places, severe drought and at other places, unseasonal torrential rains and floods have become common. The Himalayan glaciers are melting rapidly, which is directly affecting the sea level and coastal areas. The rapid decline of biodiversity is weakening the basic structure of the ecosystem.
Due to rising global temperatures and climate change, India’s monsoon is now becoming more synonymous with ‘outbreak’ than life-giving. On the one hand, uncontrolled development and environmental exploitation have disturbed the weather cycle, while on the other hand, the double blow of sudden heavy rains or prolonged drought has put agriculture, economy and common life in deep crisis. Monsoon, which once rained evenly across the country, has now taken a fragmented and extreme form. Analysis by climate scientists shows that the mood of monsoon clouds has completely changed. There is drought in one part of the country, while in the other part, within a few hours, catastrophic situations like cloud burst or heavy torrential rains create floods. This is a direct result of overheating of the ecosystem.
The Indian economy is still largely dependent on monsoon and rain-fed agriculture. Monsoon failure destroys Kharif crops, leading to food inflation and spoiling the budget of the common people. Both the income and employment of farmers are falling victim to this uncertainty. India’s concerns regarding monsoon have increased significantly, because this year the rainfall is much less than normal and the risk of El Nino is continuously increasing.
The Indian Water Management Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the monthly average rainfall in India in the month of July was 280.4 mm. Expected to be below normal. IMD Director General Dr. Mrityunjay Mahapatra has said that most parts of the country will receive below normal rainfall, although parts of North-West, North-East, East-Central India and the Eastern Peninsular region are expected to receive normal or above normal rainfall.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates that there is an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing between June and August and a 90 percent chance thereafter. According to the Agriculture Ministry, its impact could be quite severe in 12 states including Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. India’s monsoon and El Nino have had a long and uneasy relationship. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, since 1950, India has seen 16 El Nino years. Monsoon rainfall in seven of them has been below normal. What makes the current situation more worrying is that these natural cycles are unfolding against the backdrop of global warming. Which is increasing the extremes of temperature and uncertainty of rainfall manifold.
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