Strong El Nino conditions to trigger extreme weather and lower monsoon rainfall, warns World Meteorological Organization

The World Meteorological Organization warns that rapidly strengthening El Nino conditions will intensify global heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather. In India, the climate phenomenon has already triggered a severe June rainfall deficit, with below-normal monsoon rains expected through July

New Delhi: El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months, increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events across many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday.

The organisation’s monthly ‘WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update’ indicates a rapid development into a strong El Nino event during July-September this year.

El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.

While El Nino is known to have a warming effect on the planet, its opposite phase, called La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO also has a neutral phase.

In a statement, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts.

“This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”

On June 12, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the onset of El Nino conditions and said that they would strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season.

El Nino conditions typically lead to less rainfall in India. They were one of the key reasons why, in June, the country as a whole witnessed a rainfall deficit of about 40 per cent, with central India worst affected with a deficit of 50.4 per cent.

In its June 30 forecast, the IMD said the monthly average rainfall over India is expected to be below normal during July.

The weather department said July is most likely to see 94 per cent of the long-period average rainfall (1971-2020). The LPA rainfall over India in July is about 280.4 mm.

LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given period, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.