If Congress separates from SP in UP, will the dice turn or will lotus bloom in Thakurdwara? Know the complete equation

Thakurdwara. The chessboard for the 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh has already started being laid. The process of multiplication and division is going on in every small and big seat of the state. One of these very hot seats is Thakurdwara Assembly of Moradabad district. At present, a direct contest is being seen here only between the Samajwadi Party and the ruling BJP, but a question is floating very fast in the political corridors of Western UP. The question is, what will happen if there is no alliance between Congress and Samajwadi Party in the upcoming elections, and Congress fields its own candidate on this seat? Will this make the path easier for BJP or will we see a new triangular contest?

Actually, the mood of Thakurdwara seat has always been interesting. If we look at the data and ground reality of the last few elections, it becomes clear that Congress fighting separately may increase the most uneasiness in the SP camp. Let us try to understand how the entry of Congress can spoil the Thakurdwara Assembly seat 2027 elections.

Congress used to speak loudly in Thakurdwara, now its ground has slipped.

It is not that Congress has always been weak in Thakurdwara. There was a time when Congress had a good influence in this area and the party was in a strong position. But times changed and the politics of the state passed through the Mandal-Kamandal phase and came into the hands of regional satraps. The result was that in the last decade, Congress’s support base in Thakurdwara kept slipping.

Talking about the assembly elections of 2017 and 2022, Congress appeared completely out of the main contest here. The situation is that at present the organizational activities of Congress in the area are negligible and no big local face is visible on the ground who can single-handedly turn the tide. In such a situation, if the party high command decides to contest the elections here alone, then the biggest challenge before it will be to bring back its old and traditional vote bank.

Currently, the contest between SP vs BJP is a thorn in the side of Nawab’s life!

If we look at the current political scenario, the main fight for Thakurdwara Assembly seat 2027 is confined between SP and BJP. Samajwadi Party has a strong influence on this seat and it has been hoisting the flag here continuously for the last three elections. Presently Nawab Jaan of SP is the MLA from here. But on the other hand, BJP has also continuously increased its strength on this seat. BJP’s vote percentage has increased with every election and it is firmly at the second position.

In fact, the real game is about ticket distribution. This time within the Samajwadi Party, apart from Nawab Jaan, names like Mujahid Ali and Engineer Iqbal are also running in the race for the ticket. At the same time, Amit Chauhan and Ajay Pratap Singh are being considered as the main contenders from the BJP side. According to local people, if there is infighting in SP regarding ticket and meanwhile Congress fields a strong local face, then the contest will become very tough and triangular.

Vote bank mathematics: Whose game will Congress spoil?

Political analysts believe that if Congress goes alone in Thakurdwara, it can capture a section of the predominantly Muslim and Dalit voters. This is the vote bank which had shifted towards SP in the last few elections. It is considered certain that due to Congress fighting separately, there will be fragmentation of opposition votes.

Obviously, if there is division of opposition votes, then Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can get direct and indirect benefit from it. However, there is also another opinion that Congress will bring into its fold only those dissatisfied voters who are angry with the sitting SP MLA. In such a situation, the performance of Congress will completely depend on who its candidate is and how much energy it is able to put into the election campaign.

However, it does not take long for the equation to change in politics. On which side the camel of Thakurdwara will sit, it will become clear only in the election season of 2027. But it is certain that if Congress chooses a different path, then the battle of Thakurdwara is going to be very exciting.