America’s attack on Iran’s Chabahar port, why India’s Gamechanger project is in trouble, how much investment so far and what is the future strategy?

America continuously for the last two days Chabahar Port Is attacking. In such a situation, imagine if India’s sea route suddenly comes into trouble, with the help of which it was planning a strategy to bypass Pakistan and reach Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia. This is the reason why the American attacks on Iran’s Chabahar region have increased New Delhi’s concern.

India not only invested billions of rupees in this project, which started about 20 years ago, but also prepared a response to its foreign policy, trade connectivity and the growing influence of China-Pakistan. The question is that if Chabahar remains in crisis for a long time, how much loss will it cause to India and what effect will it have on its most important strategic project?

However, there is no official confirmation yet that the Indian-run Shahid Beheshti Terminal has been directly damaged.

India’s Chabahar strategy started 20 years ago

The first formal agreement on the Chabahar project between India and Iran was made in the year 2003. After this, in 2016, a trilateral transit agreement was signed between India, Iran and Afghanistan, which gave new impetus to the project. In 2018, India Ports Global Limited (IPGL), a Government of India company, took over the operation of Shahid Beheshti Terminal. In May 2024, India and Iran signed a 10-year long-term operational agreement. India has committed direct investment of about US $ 120 million and a credit line of up to $ 250 million for this project. This is one of India’s most significant investments in any foreign port project. Overall, India has spent Rs 3000 thousand crores on this Chabahar project.

Why is Chabahar a lifeline for India?

For India, Chabahar Port is not just a port, but the lifeline of its West Asia and Central Asia strategy. Due to Pakistan not allowing Indian goods to go from its territory to Afghanistan, India remained limited in options for years. Chabahar eliminates this barrier. Indian ships directly reach Chabahar in Iran and from there via road and rail reach Zahedan, Afghanistan and further to Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan. This is the reason why Chabahar is considered the cornerstone of India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ and ‘Act West’ policy.

Why is Chabahar the center of INSTC?

Chabahar is not only a way to reach Afghanistan, but it is also an important part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This approximately 7,200 km long corridor connects India with Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia and Europe. According to experts, when this route is fully developed, the time and transportation cost of transporting goods from India to Russia and Europe can be reduced by 30 to 40 percent compared to the traditional Suez Canal route. This is why India sees Chabahar as the global trading network of the future.

Why is Chabahar important for China and Pakistan?

Pakistan’s Gwadar Port is located about 170 kilometers away from Chabahar, which has been developed by China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China aims to develop Gwadar as its strategic and trading hub in the Indian Ocean. In comparison, India chose Chabahar to strengthen its strategic presence. If Chabahar activities are affected, the importance of Gwadar may increase and China’s strategic edge in the region may be further strengthened.

What harm can happen to India?

If military tension continues in the Chabahar region for a long time, the first thing that will be affected will be India’s alternative trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Second, India’s plans to reach out to Russia and Europe through INSTC may get slowed down. Third, marine insurance premiums and freight costs may increase, placing additional economic burden on Indian exporters. Fourth, increased instability in West Asia may impact global oil and gas prices, which will have a direct impact on India’s energy import costs.

Is India’s investment in danger?

India has not only made financial investments in Chabahar, but has also provided modern cranes, container handling systems and port infrastructure. At present, there has been no confirmation of direct damage to the Shahid Beheshti Terminal operated by India. But if the conflict in the region prolongs, port operations, shipping, insurance, investment and future expansion plans could be affected. This may also affect the economic feasibility of the project.

What is the biggest challenge facing India?

India has to simultaneously balance its relations with its two strategic partners, America and Iran. America is India’s main defense and strategic partner, while the Chabahar project is completely based on cooperation with Iran. Therefore, the biggest challenge before New Delhi will be how to deal with this crisis without harming its West Asia interests, energy security and global trade strategy.