Before the current monsoon session of Parliament began, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the largest party in the alliance, were feeling high. MPs from various parties were defecting to the ruling coalition in two-thirds of the seats, and it was being said that the Modi government would pass the delimitation bill at any cost. Barely 15 days have passed, and the situation has completely changed. For the first time in 12 years, protests and pressure forced the resignation of a central government minister, and the BJP lost by-elections in two of its strongholds. Furthermore, the situation has become so dire that there are now rumors that bills like the delimitation bill and the PM-CM bill have been postponed for this session.
The ruling BJP is on the back foot these days. Opposition leaders are constantly creating ruckus in Parliament, and despite two weeks having passed, neither the Union Home Minister nor the Prime Minister has delivered a speech. These two leaders also did not participate in the discussion on the paper leak bill. Following the paper leak, opposition MPs are protesting daily regarding the Ram Temple offering theft case, demanding that Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi answer. Furthermore, various protests are taking place across the country regarding ethanol, the paper leak, the Ram Temple offering theft, and many other issues.
E20 Petrol Has Become a Threat
Adding ethanol to petrol is increasingly posing challenges for the government. The government continues to deny that it poses any problems, but this claim is not being accepted by the public. The government itself has acknowledged the decline in fuel mileage, and several cases of vehicle malfunction have been reported. In one case, the Consumer Court ruled in favor of the customer and ordered the dealer to replace the vehicle. This case also involved ethanol.
Due to the continued questions and opposition protests, the government appears to be on the back foot on this issue as well. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, who previously claimed he had signed the file for the ₹100 bill, is now claiming he has nothing to do with it. Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal has been consistently raising the issue and demanding that the government provide a choice between pure petrol and ethanol-based petrol at petrol pumps.
Student Protests Deal a Major Setback
The long-running student protests in Delhi became a topic of discussion on July 20, the very first day of the Parliament session. For the first time in 12 years, the Modi government was forced to relent, and Dharmendra Pradhan was forced to resign as Education Minister. The issue was not limited to this. It also sent a message to the BJP that it is unable to connect with the upcoming generations, namely Gen Z and Gen Alpha. This is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself has started making videos on Instagram and has advised his ministers to do the same.
There is talk that the BJP is now fully engaged in efforts to connect with this generation. The abuses hurled at Prime Minister Modi and his ministers at Jantar Mantar have dealt a significant blow to both “Brand Hindutva” and “Brand Modi.” The opposition, which previously appeared helpless against the BJP, has become increasingly aggressive, while the ruling BJP has become defensive.
Electoral setbacks have shaken the BJP.
Although the by-elections to the three assembly seats are not expected to impact the governments in the three states, the BJP’s defeat in two of the three seats has sent serious warnings. One of these seats, Bankipur, is held by BJP National President Nitin Naveen, a seat it had long held. In the other seat, Datia, the BJP denied the ticket to its firebrand leader and former Home Minister Narottam Mishra, losing this seat to the Congress.
These two defeats have forced the BJP to make course corrections. The BJP, which had previously been confident of winning by fielding any candidate in its strongholds, has suffered a major setback. There is talk that a thorough review is underway for both these seats, and its impact may be felt within the party and the government in the coming days.
Before the current Parliament session began, there was talk of a major cabinet reshuffle, but now that appears to be on hold as the BJP is now under pressure. Even its allies, who previously listened to the BJP, are now advising it, and in this situation, a cabinet reshuffle could be a losing proposition. This is why, not only the party but the government is currently experiencing no changes. There is talk that Nitin Naveen’s team within the BJP may also undergo some changes compared to its previous form, or that a new approach to its formation may be considered.
Upcoming elections could be challenging
The upcoming elections are scheduled for Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. If the BJP wants to retain its government in Uttar Pradesh, securing the Punjab fortress will be a major challenge. Therefore, if the BJP fails to overcome these issues, it could face difficulties in both states. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party has strongly cornered the BJP over the theft of offerings at the Ram Temple. Meanwhile, in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is continuously targeting the BJP on the E20 issue.
The BJP, already in a very weak position in Punjab, needs to address these issues and counter its opponents. Failure to do so will be a challenge for the BJP in both states.