Has Iran War Emptied US Weapons? Why Trump’s Military Options Are Now Under Pressure

The United States is facing a serious shortage of some of its most important offensive and defensive weapons after more than five months of airstrikes against Iran, raising questions over how much longer Washington can sustain a major military campaign. Reports indicate that the US Army has used up “virtually all” of its ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), while nearly 80% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles and about half of its Patriot interceptors have also been expended. The depleted stockpiles are now affecting President Donald Trump’s options for any fresh escalation against Iran.

Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta described the situation as “poor planning” by the Pentagon, warning that the US faces the possibility of renewed attacks on Iran as well as potential threats from Russia and China, particularly if Beijing moves against Taiwan. “So, this is a dangerous moment for the United States to have these reduced stockpiles of key weapons at a time when these threats are all real,” Panetta said Friday on CNN.

US weapon shortages in Iran war put offensive options under pressure

The Army has reportedly exhausted almost all of its surface-to-surface ATACMS and PrSM missiles. ATACMS, made by Lockheed Martin, can be fired from HIMARS launchers and hit targets nearly 200 miles away with a payload of close to 400 pounds. PrSM, also made by Lockheed Martin, is designed to replace ATACMS, has a range of more than 300 miles and can be launched from HIMARS and M270 MLRS systems.

The PrSM supply was already limited before the Iran war. A Center for Strategic and International Studies report in April estimated that the US had only around 90 PrSM missiles before the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Tehran. If Trump approves another large air campaign, the shortage could force the US military to rely more heavily on piloted bombing missions.

US air defence stockpile also takes heavy hit during Iran conflict

The problem is not limited to offensive weapons. CNN reported that the US has used nearly 80% of its THAAD missile arsenal and around 50% of its Patriot interceptors since the Iran war began. Before the conflict, the Pentagon had about 2,200 Patriot missiles and roughly 450 THAAD missiles. By late July, a CSIS report put the remaining THAAD stockpile at between 234 and 278 missiles.

Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have strongly defended the size of America’s weapons stockpiles. Trump has also warned that people leaking sensitive information about the number of remaining munitions are “being hunted down.” Experts, however, said leaks were not necessary to understand the problem because information about US stockpiles is available through unclassified sources.

Iran may already know US military limits, experts say

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said Iran has “likely” known for some time that limits on US munitions would restrict Washington’s military options.

“This likely affected their strategy: to draw out the war and simply outlast the United States. But the public coverage of this information is unlikely to have affected Iranian decisionmaking for the simple fact that it was already known,” Kavanagh told The Hill. “Do the shortages affect U.S. leverage? Definitely. Does coverage of them have any further impact? No, because Iran already knows about them.”

Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said Iran’s awareness of American reluctance to escalate militarily “gives it leverage at the negotiating table, and Beijing draws the same lesson about how long Washington could sustain a fight over Taiwan.”

Iran war exposes years of US production and supply problems

Cicurel said the shortage was not created overnight. “Years of procrastination across multiple administrations of both parties left U.S. magazines too shallow before the war, and closing the gap now demands sustained multiyear appropriations and expanded production capacity,” he said.

“That requires Congress to fund the multiyear munitions contracts, the Pentagon to break supply chain bottlenecks and buy cheaper munitions in bulk, and both investing in the workers who build these weapons,” Cicurel added. Defense companies have accelerated production, but industry experts told The Hill and other outlets that rebuilding the stockpile to pre-war levels will take at least a few years.

Iran war shortage may have influenced Trump’s decision-making

The dwindling supply has reportedly played a role in Trump’s decision not to launch a broader air campaign against Iran. The president has threatened expanded strikes at least five times in recent months but has not followed through. Meanwhile, Oman and Iran have been negotiating over the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the Trump administration pushes Tehran to make concessions to end the conflict, which has lasted almost six months.

Vice President JD Vance said Saturday that Washington had made progress in talks but cautioned that the US and Iran were still in the “middle of the game.” “I do think that we’ve made some progress over the last few days,” Vance said on Fox News.

Iran sets conditions for reopening Strait of Hormuz

Iranian national security officials have demanded that the US lift its naval blockade and sanctions, withdraw its military presence from Iran’s vicinity, release Iran’s frozen assets and pay war reparations before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. About 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows through the strategic waterway. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr outlined the demands in a statement reported by Iranian state media, though the demands are considered unlikely to be accepted by the Trump administration.

The stockpile issue has also created tension between Trump and Hegseth. Trump reportedly demanded answers from Hegseth at a July 31 Camp David meeting over why he had been misled about the extent of the shortage, according to The Washington Post. The Pentagon and White House denied that account. Trump defended Hegseth, saying he was “extremely happy” with his performance and calling the report “fake news.”

“Pete is highly respected within the Military, and has made tremendous improvements, including getting rid of DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion]and increasing recruitment to historic levels,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

US weapons replenishment faces years-long challenge

Kavanagh said she believes the Pentagon had included information about stockpiles and the risks of a prolonged Iran war while presenting options to Trump. “However, there’s lots of evidence he expected the war to be quick with limited retaliation, so he may not have taken those warnings seriously or understood their scope and implications once the war dragged on for months,” she said.

Tom Sauer, a former Navy Explosive Ordnance Disposal Officer, said replenishing stocks is one reason Trump has not reauthorised bombing Iran. “To give you an idea, a Columbia-class submarine has 16,000 different suppliers in their supply chain. So, like, that’s really the bigger question. And as we reindustrialize, it’s tying into your earlier story and the next story here,” Sauer said on Fox News’ Fox & Friends. “But really, President Trump has the capacity to inflict tremendous damage. But if he can have peace, he’d prefer to have peace,” he added.

Pentagon pushes new production as Iran war drains stocks

The Pentagon is trying to increase supplies. It has reached framework agreements with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin to boost THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 production. Lockheed Martin received a nearly $59 billion contract aimed at tripling PAC-3 production by 2030. But experts warned that congressional funding is still needed to turn such agreements into actual production.

CSIS Missile Defense Project director Tom Karako warned: “The bad news is that when you read the fine print, you very quickly realize that these are not contracts; they are agreements to agree. I’m seeing a lot of cheerleading and a lot of premature celebration and until we get appropriations, none of it’s real.”

The Pentagon has also ordered defence companies to accelerate production. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg said in a memo that defence leaders have three weeks to submit plans to “drive significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules and/or increased production for critical capabilities.” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell confirmed the memo and said it would “inform the fiscal year 2028 budget submitted to Congress for funding, and it is entirely consistent with our ongoing push to rebuild the defense industrial base.”

“The fiscal year 2027 budget currently being considered on Capitol Hill could supercharge this effort today,” Parnell said

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