Before the 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party has intensified efforts to woo the Kurmi community, an important part of the non-Yadav backward class. The Kurmi community, comprising about 7.5 percent of the population, is in a position to influence the election results in many parts of the state. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the inclination of this social equation went towards Samajwadi Party instead of Bharatiya Janata Party in many seats. Now BJP is trying to bridge this gap. The party has made Vinod Tawde of Maharashtra in-charge of Uttar Pradesh and Jagdish Patel of Gujarat as co-in-charge. Both appointments are being seen as an attempt to strengthen the reach of Kurmi voters in the 2027 election strategy.
After the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the names of Samajwadi Party's Ram Prasad Choudhary (Basti), Lalji Verma (Ambedkar Nagar), Naresh Uttam Patel (Fatehpur), RK Choudhary (Mohanlalganj), Utkarsh Verma (Kheeri), Ram Shiromani Verma (Shravasti) and Shivpal Singh Patel (Pratapgarh) are included among the MPs elected from the Kurmi community in Uttar Pradesh.
From the Bharatiya Janata Party, there are names like Pankaj Chaudhary (Maharajganj), Praveen Singh Patel (Phulpur) and Kshatrapal Singh Gangwar (Bareilly), while Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal (S) was elected MP from Mirzapur. This picture is enough to understand the concern of BJP. The Kurmi base, which appeared strong with BJP in 2014 and 2019, slipped in many areas in 2024 and Samajwadi Party's Backward, Dalit, Minority (PDA) equation got its benefit.
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Was the equation strong in favor of BJP in 2022?
In the 2022 assembly elections, BJP and its allies had got a good hold among the Kurmi community. This social equation strengthened BJP on many seats in Purvanchal, Awadh and Central UP. The way Samajwadi Party added the equation of backward, Dalit and minority in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a part of the Kurmi community also went along with it. This is why before 2027, BJP is not only facing the challenge of saving its old vote bank, but also of getting back the Kurmi voters who had gone with the Samajwadi Party.
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Why is Tawde-Patel pair important?
The appointment of Vinod Tawde as in-charge of Uttar Pradesh and Jagdish Patel as co-in-charge is being seen to be linked to both the organizational and social equations of BJP. Tawde has long experience in election management and organization operations, while Patel's role is also being linked to the organizational experience of Gujarat model.
BJP already has many big faces from Kurmi community. Leaders like Pankaj Choudhary, Swatantra Dev Singh, Rakesh Sachan and Ashish Patel are playing important roles in the party and allies. In such a situation, the real goal of the appointment of Tawde and Patel is believed to be not only to bring forward Kurmi faces, but to further strengthen the reach of this community through the organization.
Which are the districts with Kurmi influence?
The influence of Kurmi community is not equal in the entire state. Politically, its presence is considered important in many parts of Purvanchal, Awadh, Central Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand. In Purvanchal, Kurmi voters influence many seats in areas like Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Basti, Sant Kabirnagar, Siddharthnagar, Shravasti, Ayodhya, Sultanpur and Pratapgarh.
In Awadh and Central UP, the political role of Kurmi voters is also considered important in Barabanki, areas around Lucknow, Sitapur, Lakhimpur Kheri, Hardoi, Unnao, Rae Bareli and Fatehpur. In Bundelkhand and surrounding areas, Kurmi votes can affect the electoral equation on some seats including Banda, Chitrakoot, Hamirpur, Mahoba and Fatehpur. This effect varies considerably depending on the assembly constituency.
Why is Samajwadi Party's rise a worry for BJP?
Kurmi vote is important for SP because its traditional Yadav base is already strong. If along with Yadav-Muslims, a part of Kurmi and other non-Yadav backward classes also remain with SP, then BJP may face a direct challenge on many seats. This is why BJP is now emphasizing on strengthening the non-Yadav OBC social equation to cut off the PDA. Kurmi community is an important part of this strategy. Even in political analyses, the Kurmi community has been considered an important non-Yadav OBC group of UP.
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What are the three big challenges before BJP?
The first challenge before BJP is to bring back the Kurmi voters who went to Samajwadi Party in 2024. The second challenge is to cultivate regional leadership and local issues within the Kurmi community. The third challenge is how to make the presence of big Kurmi leaders of the party effective up to the booth level. The answer to how successful the party's new organizational experiment will be will be known in the coming months.
Bharatiya Janata Party has big faces of Kurmi community, organization and representation in the government. Samajwadi Party has the performance of 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the political message of PDA. In such a situation, the fight of 2027 will not only decide which party the Kurmi community is with, but will also decide how much part of this society goes with which party. This is the reason why both BJP and Samajwadi Party are keeping an eye on this vote bank which is considered to be around 7.5 percent. The challenge for BJP is clear, to bring back the slipped Kurmi vote in the Lok Sabha and retain it in its favor till the assembly elections. BJP had started preparations to achieve this a year in advance.