New Delhi: America's Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has released a new estimate regarding India's nuclear weapons. According to the report, India may have about 190 assembled nuclear weapons. Of these, more than 160 weapons are said to be related to such delivery systems, which are currently active. However, countries possessing nuclear weapons do not usually make public their actual stockpile numbers. India also does not confirm the official number of its nuclear weapons. In such a situation, the FAS figure is an external estimate and not official information released by the Government of India.
According to the report, India has prepared more nuclear weapons than its current launchers require. Out of the total estimated stockpile of about 190 weapons, about 160 weapons are connected to the existing delivery system. The remaining weapons are kept for missile systems to be used in future. These include missiles like Agni-Prime and long-range K-4.
According to experts, the number of weapons exceeding the delivery system is not necessarily a sign of any disorder or sudden expansion. Nuclear power countries often begin producing weapons for new launch systems even before they are fully ready. With this, the weapons used with the new system remain available as soon as it comes into service.
Strategic meaning of additional weapons
The additional weapons mentioned in the FAS estimate are being linked to India's future nuclear capability. After the new missile systems are ready, it may take time to make separate weapons for them. Therefore, keeping some weapons ready in advance is considered a way to meet future needs.
In a situation of tension or war, the availability of weapons with ready delivery systems can be important. This helps in maintaining nuclear deterrence. India has long linked its nuclear policy to the principle of credible minimum deterrence. This means maintaining a capability that is sufficient to prevent a possible nuclear attack.
However, it is important to note that the FAS figures are based on estimates. The Indian government does not make public the exact number of its nuclear stockpile. Organizations such as FAS prepare such estimates by analyzing open sources, available information, and other public sources. Therefore the actual number may be different from this.
India sticks to no-first-use policy
India's declared nuclear policy is also important amid the discussion related to the stockpile of nuclear weapons. India has long adopted the policy of no-first-use i.e. not using nuclear weapons first. Under this, India's declared stand is that it will not use nuclear weapons first. India has not conducted any new nuclear tests since the 1998 nuclear tests. The country's self-declared testing ban is still continuing. Thus, despite the development in nuclear capability, India has not made any major changes in its declared policy.
development of nuclear deterrence
India's nuclear capability has developed gradually over many years. Moving beyond the initially limited delivery options, the country has worked on developing the capability to deliver nuclear weapons by land, sea and air. Along with missiles, sea-based and air platforms are also part of this strategy. The development of modern missiles like Agni-Prime and sea-launched systems like K-4 is seen to be linked to the expansion of this capability. Availability of ready-made weapons with new delivery systems can help in strengthening India's nuclear deterrence in the future.
The balance of nuclear power in South Asia has long been an important issue of security discussion. Along with modernizing its capabilities, India has been officially talking about minimum deterrence capability. In such a situation, FAS estimates indicate a slow but steady increase in India's nuclear stockpile.
The nature of India's nuclear capability may become clearer in the coming years as new delivery systems come into operation. The presence of additional weapons can make preparation for these systems easier. However, the actual number of nuclear stockpile has not been made public by the Government of India, so the figures from external organizations should be seen as estimates only.