The unresolved India-China boundary dispute is likely to remain the biggest test of efforts to stabilise ties between New Delhi and Beijing as Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in New Delhi, according to senior journalist Suhasini Haider.
The Modi-Xi meeting is expected to draw particular attention as India and China attempt to move their relationship forward despite continuing differences over the border, trade and mutual trust.
Speaking on The Federal’s AI With Sanket show, Haider, Diplomatic Affairs Editor, The Hindusaid that while military and diplomatic mechanisms between the two countries remain engaged on the boundary question, India-China relations are still “far from normalised” and have yet to move towards a durable solution.
India-China trade
The border issue continues to cast a shadow over the broader relationship, even as both sides have taken steps towards improving ties.
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Trade remains another major point of friction. China is one of India’s largest trading partners and, in some months, has been the largest. However, India’s trade deficit with China continues to increase, adding to concerns over the imbalance in economic ties.
Haider also flagged India’s actions against some Chinese companies as an issue that could affect the relationship. At the same time, there have been signs of a cautious improvement in people-to-people contacts, including through tourism, business visas and the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
But greater engagement has not necessarily translated into greater trust between the two countries, Haider said.
India-China-Russia trilateral ties
The possibility of reviving the India-China-Russia trilateral could also be significant, particularly as India seeks to maintain strategic space amid growing tensions between Russia and the West.
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India’s relationship with Moscow itself faces difficult choices. Haider noted that more than 50 per cent of India’s oil imports now come from Russia and warned that this dependence could “run into trouble in the next few months” as New Delhi balances its ties with Russia and Western countries.
Against this backdrop, bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit could prove as important as the summit itself. India is expected to use these engagements to advance its interests with Russia, China and Iran while maintaining its broader strategic autonomy.
For BRICS, Haider said the key challenge would be demonstrating that countries with sharply different interests can still agree on a common agenda.
Discussions on intra-BRICS trade and payment systems are likely to remain important. Haider noted that while concerns over de-dollarisation have drawn attention, discussions on alternative payment mechanisms within BRICS do not necessarily amount to an attempt to abandon the dollar.