Thursday's trading session in the major bullion markets of the country proved to be like a thriller film for investors and jewelery buyers. From the early morning trading till the afternoon session, there was a continuous sluggishness and softness in the prices of precious metals, due to which the fears of recession in the market started deepening. However, between 6 to 7 pm suddenly such stormy buying returned on the trading terminals which surprised even the market experts. Within just a few hours, the yellow metal recorded a huge jump of about Rs 3,000 per 10 grams, while the white metal i.e. silver saw a huge jump of about Rs 6,200 per kilogram. With this unexpected rise, gold rose to a new level of Rs 1,53,444 per 10 grams in the domestic market, while the price of silver also jumped to a record range of Rs 2,38,678 per kg.
This latest development in the bullion market has raised a big technical question before both financial analysts and common investors. According to the basic rules of economics, whenever the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) announces a rate hike, the US dollar index and bond yields strengthen. Generally, in such a situation, profit booking or sharp decline is seen in non-interest bearing assets like gold and silver. But this time why there was a huge rise in precious metals despite the increase in interest rates, this is the biggest question of the moment. Market insiders believe that global geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and continued aggressive gold purchases by central banks completely neutralized the Fed's pressure. Investors saw the rate hike as a harbinger of recession and poured their capital into gold as safe-haven buying.
Decoding this unexpected U-turn and future movement of gold and silver, Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory explained the situation in detail. He said that the decline seen in the earlier part of the day was only a temporary technical correction, which was used by large institutional investors to create new positions at lower levels. According to Ajay Kedia, at present, for investors who want to enter gold and silver for the long term, this period of recovery from the decline presents an excellent buying opportunity. Whenever policy tightening at the international level reaches its peak, markets often already begin to discount further uncertainties, and this evening's rally is a clear sign of this major change.
Keeping in mind the upcoming festive and wedding season, the question that is uppermost in the minds of jewelery lovers and retail investors is what level the prices of gold and silver can reach by Diwali 2026. According to expert analysis, the physical demand for gold is at its peak during Dhanteras and Diwali in India. According to Ajay Kedia, if global uncertainties and currency market fluctuations continue like this, then domestically gold can go above its current level and touch new psychological levels by Diwali. At the same time, silver, which is no longer just a precious metal but has become an essential raw material for modern industrial sectors like solar energy, electric vehicle (EV) components and 5G technology, has the potential to rise much faster than gold. This lack of industrial demand could push silver to new all-time highs in the coming months.
Considering the current situation of the bullion market, market experts have advised retail buyers to make purchases in a systematic manner instead of investing a huge amount in lump sum. Experts say that there is always volatility in the market at high levels, hence investors should also consider transparent options like Gold ETF, Sovereign Gold Bond or Digital Gold in a phased manner to mitigate any sudden fall. Consumers who are planning to buy genuine jewelery for weddings or upcoming festivals should also make partial purchases while waiting for any small dips in prices. This strategy will prove to be most effective in protecting buyers from the risk of sudden market surges.