Before the beginning of the trading week in the Indian stock market, many such major developments are taking place on the domestic and foreign front which can cause sharp fluctuations on Dalal Street. Before buying or selling any stock in the new trading week starting from September 28, retail investors and traders will have to closely examine the 10 important triggers that will decide the trend of Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Globally, the deepening geopolitical crisis in West Asia, volatile prices of international benchmark Brent crude and US economic data are going to test investor sentiments severely. Apart from this, there are many factors domestically like India's macroeconomic data, influx of IPOs in the primary capital market and continuous selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) which will affect the technical structure of the market. Experts believe that this week the market may consolidate within a limited range as well as show high volatility. In such a situation, it would be a wise step to analyze all these ten factors in depth before entering the market. Geopolitical tension and crude oil heat: The market is shaken by the US-Iran crisis. The biggest risk factor for the market this week remains the deepening conflict between America and Iran. In its latest diplomatic stance, Iran has said that its tensions with the US and Israel can only be resolved through diplomacy, while US President Donald Trump has said to reject the Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe navigation and end the conflict. Any military standoff on this strategically sensitive sea route could disrupt the global supply chain. The direct impact of the growing war clouds in West Asia is visible on the prices of crude oil in the international market, which is the most sensitive subject for an energy importing country like India. Crude oil prices have been a major cause of concern for Indian markets since late February, when the US and Israel launched joint operations against Iranian targets. India imports more than 85 percent of its crude oil needs. If there is a rise in crude oil prices, it will increase India's current account deficit (CAD), there will be a huge increase in the import bill and inflationary pressure in the country may deepen. Due to this, there may remain pressure on shares of oil-sensitive sectors like auto, paints, tires and aviation in the domestic market. FII withdrawal of Rs 25,682 crore and rupee's fight against US dollar Selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs/FIIs) continues to be a headache for the Indian markets. After being net buyers in July and early August, foreign investors have once again started pulling out of the Indian equity market. According to official data, till August 25 alone, foreign institutional investors have sold a total of Rs 25,682 crore from the domestic stock markets. This outflow of foreign capital is having a direct impact on the valuations of largecap stocks and profit-booking is dominating at the upper levels due to weak institutional support. On the other hand, investors are also going to keep a close eye on the movement of the Indian rupee in the foreign exchange market. In Friday's session, the rupee had strengthened by 24 paise and closed at 95.75 against the US dollar. However, the rupee opened at 95.92 in the interbank foreign exchange market and slipped to 95.94 in the day's trade. Financial experts say that the continuous demand for dollars from crude oil importers and withdrawal of foreign funds from the market is putting continuous pressure on the rupee. Although active foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has helped in limiting the rupee's decline, the strengthening of the dollar index can again put the rupee under pressure at any time. Important economic data of India and America: PMI, Factory Output and Bond Yield The domestic and international economic data released this week will give a new direction to the market regarding interest rates and policy direction. Industrial Production (IIP) data and HSBC Manufacturing PMI data for the month of August are about to be announced in India. According to Siddharth Khemka, Research Head, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Dalal Street will keep a close eye on India's August industrial output as well as the fiscal deficit position of the central government. These figures will make it clear how strong the underlying momentum of the Indian economy is and whether corporate earnings will see a rise in the times to come. Apart from this, the movement of US 10-year Treasury bond yield may tighten global financial conditions. If bond yields rise, the risk of capital flowing out of emerging markets like India into US safe assets increases. Also, consumer confidence data coming from the US, JOLTS job openings and September inflation data from the Europe region will set the tone for the upcoming interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which will be decisive for global liquidity. Boom in Primary Market: Preparation to raise Rs 1,292 crore from 20 new IPOs. Amidst the ongoing fluctuations in the secondary market, India's primary market i.e. IPO market will be in tremendous turmoil this week too. A total of 20 new IPOs are going to open for subscription this week, through which companies are planning to raise a total capital of Rs 1,292 crore from the market. This is bringing great opportunities for retail investors to earn and new listing gains. This week, 4 big IPOs are standing in the queue to attract the attention of investors on the main board. These four major mainboard IPOs include SRIT India, Vishal Nirmithi, Nityas Gems & Jewellery, and Shah Investors Home. These four companies together will raise funds of Rs 595 crore. Apart from this, public issues of more than a dozen small companies will also be at stake on the SME platform. Investors will have to objectively review the companies' financial performance, gray market premium (GMP) and their valuations before investing money in these IPOs. Holiday on Gandhi Jayanti on October 2: Short trading week of 4 trading days. Traders will also have to take special care in their weekly positioning plan that the upcoming trading week is going to be of only four days due to holidays. According to the official holiday calendar of the year 2026 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), all segments of the Indian stock market, currency market and commodity derivatives will remain completely closed on October 2 to commemorate the national festival of the birth anniversary of the Father of the Nation Mahatma Gandhi. Due to trading being closed on Friday, the process of weekly futures and options (F&O) expiry and position rollover will have to be completed in advance. In short, this week starting from 28th September is for investors to be extremely cautious. On one hand, global geopolitical tensions, crude oil and FII selling may put pressure on the market, on the other hand, domestic economic data and enthusiasm in the IPO market may create bullish opportunities in select sectors. Investors should move into this volatile market only by following strict rules of risk management (stop loss).
