Republicans Shift Senate Strategy as Georgia and North Carolina Hopes Fade/ TezzBuzz/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Republicans are redirecting their Senate campaign strategy as prospects weaken in Georgia and North Carolina with five weeks until the midterm elections. Heavy spending in Texas and President Donald Trump’s planned Ohio visit reflect growing pressure to defend Republican-held seats. GOP strategists warn that rising fuel costs, the Iran war and declining voter enthusiasm could threaten the party’s Senate majority.
Quick Look
- Republicans are increasingly prioritizing Senate defense as opportunities in Georgia and North Carolina appear less promising.
- Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a substantial fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Mike Collins in Georgia.
- Some North Carolina Republicans believe former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will defeat Trump-backed Michael Whatley.
- The Senate Leadership Fund has committed $124 million to Texas advertising this month to support Ken Paxton.
- Trump plans to campaign Saturday in Ohio for Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
- Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain Senate control.
- Republican officials warn that high energy prices and the ongoing Iran war are weakening turnout enthusiasm.
Deep Look
Republicans Move Toward Defending Their Senate Majority
ATLANTA — Republican confidence in two important Southern Senate races is weakening, prompting the party to concentrate more resources on protecting seats elsewhere as the midterm elections approach.
Georgia and North Carolina initially offered Republicans potential opportunities to strengthen their position. Trump narrowly carried both states in the 2024 presidential election, making them central to the party’s early Senate calculations.
Republicans remain engaged in both contests. However, campaign spending and travel plans increasingly reflect concern about states that appeared more secure at the beginning of the election cycle.
Texas is drawing substantial Republican advertising money, while Trump plans to visit Ohio to support its Republican incumbent. Trump won both states comfortably in 2024.
Some Republicans blame the administration for making the election environment more difficult. Their complaints include the continuing war in Iran, high fuel prices and what they consider Trump’s late involvement in congressional campaigns.
“There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration’s failure to address the economic concerns of voters,” North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shoemaker said of the state’s U.S. Senate race.
Georgia Republicans Question Collins’ Ability to Defeat Ossoff
Republican Senate campaign leaders are considering directing future spending toward states they regard as more competitive than Georgia, according to two Republican Senate campaign officials familiar with leadership discussions.
The officials spoke anonymously to describe internal deliberations about Republican businessman Mike Collins’ challenge to first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Collins, a successful trucking company executive, has struggled to expand his appeal beyond the Republican base. Ossoff, meanwhile, has established a commanding fundraising advantage.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune visited Georgia this month for two days of campaigning and fundraising. Even with that support, some local Republicans expressed doubts about Collins’ prospects.
“He just doesn’t have what it takes to beat Ossoff,” said Tim Waters, Peach County Republican Party chair. “It’s hard enough trying to beat an incumbent, and you have the president of the same party in a tough midterm, right? I don’t think he’s got much of a shot.”
Republicans initially considered a Georgia pickup a possible safeguard against losses in Republican-held states. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain the majority.
According to advertising tracker AdImpact, Ossoff has spent $57 million on advertising and reserved another $13 million through Election Day.
Outside organizations supporting Collins have spent more than $52 million. However, Collins’ campaign confirmed it had no advertising time immediately reserved.
Tillis Urges Republicans to Reassess North Carolina Spending
In North Carolina, retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis suggested party leaders should evaluate how long to maintain heavy spending against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
Tillis did not declare Republican nominee Michael Whatley’s campaign beyond recovery. His remarks nevertheless indicated that Republicans may need to make difficult decisions about where to deploy their remaining resources.
“We’ve got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance,” Tillis told reporters Monday in the Capitol. “You’ve got to change your posture going into the last — we’ve got 36 days.”
Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, enjoys Trump’s backing. The president campaigned for him this month.
But Shoemaker, who advises Tillis, said enthusiasm has declined among some Republicans who previously supported Trump. Higher energy costs are particularly affecting working-class voters who helped expand Trump’s coalition.
“The blue-collar, working-class voters that Donald Trump brought to the Republican Party is the one that’s being most impacted by higher energy prices, and it’s dampened their enthusiasm to turn out and vote,” Shoemaker said.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, has spent $30.4 million in North Carolina and booked another $19.5 million in advertising.
Some Republican figures nevertheless believe Cooper’s statewide record and popularity give him the advantage.
“Do I think Roy Cooper is going to win the race? I absolutely do,” said Michele Woodhouse, former Republican chair for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District and a devout Trump supporter.
“Roy Cooper, for Republicans, is the worst Democrat candidate who could be running for this seat,” Woodhouse said. “He’s never lost in a statewide race. He’s very popular.”
Texas Becomes a Major Republican Spending Priority
Texas has emerged as a costly defensive contest for Republicans, despite Democrats having last won a Senate election there in 1988.
Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a race now viewed as highly competitive.
The Senate Leadership Fund has directed more advertising money toward Texas than toward any of the states it originally planned to defend. Its advertising commitments in the state reached $124 million this month.
Trump supported Paxton over four-term Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Paxton defeated Cornyn in the May runoff.
Republican campaign leaders had previously worried that Paxton could require substantial financial support because of longstanding legal, ethical and personal controversies. Those included a felony indictment, impeachment charges and extramarital affairs, although he was never convicted.
Neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor the Senate Leadership Fund originally included Texas spending in its midterm budget.
After Paxton’s primary victory, Senate Republican leaders suggested Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., would cover a significant share of the advertising effort.
As of Monday, MAGA Inc. had committed more than $20 million this month to advertising supporting Paxton, compared with the Senate Leadership Fund’s $124 million.
Democrats Have Several Routes to Senate Control
Victories in North Carolina and Texas would put Democrats halfway toward the net gain of four seats needed to reclaim the Senate.
They would then need to capture two additional competitive Republican-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine or Ohiowhile retaining their own competitive seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
That calculation is increasing the importance of Ohio, where Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a competitive challenge from former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Trump plans to campaign with Husted on Saturday in Vandalia, near Dayton in southwestern Ohio.
Iran War and Fuel Costs Weigh on Republican Campaigns
Republican campaign leaders say elevated gasoline prices, driven by the seven-month war with Iranare creating difficulties for their Senate candidates.
Some also argue that Trump’s comments have compounded those problems by appearing dismissive of household financial pressures.
While campaigning with Whatley last week, Trump described higher fuel prices as “a very inexpensive price to pay” to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Gasoline prices are approaching historic highs, although they remain below the nationwide record established in 2022.
Republican candidates have increasingly addressed the financial strain directly. Iowa’s Republican Senate nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson, criticized the burden on consumers.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she said last week.
South Dakota Republican Sen. Mike Rounds rejected suggestions that the party’s Senate majority was slipping away, but acknowledged the need to address energy costs.
“We have to stay focused on the fact that we know that gas prices are too high, and diesel is way too high,” the Republican said.
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