The election mathematics of 2027 in Uttar Pradesh is still stuck on seats, but Congress has sent a clear political message to the Samajwadi Party through its new organization. The party has made a major change in the organization by making Aradhana Mishra 'Mona' the state president and Imran Masood as the working president. On the other hand, Congress has openly put forth its demand to contest elections on at least 150 seats out of 403 assembly seats. In such a situation, the question is not only about the number of seats, but also about the terms of the alliance and the political strength of both the parties.
In fact, UP Congress has publicly stated that it does not want to compromise on less than 150 seats in the 403-seat assembly. Congress' UP in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam had said in late September that the party has preparations for all 403 seats and talks on seat sharing can proceed in October. In such a situation, the new organizational change of Congress is also being linked to this strategy.
Congress is adamant on how many seats?
At present, Congress has not said anything officially from the party regarding the seats. But party leaders are seen openly expressing their intention to contest elections on at least 150 seats. This figure is higher than the initial stand of the party. Earlier there were reports of Congress claiming around 100 to 105 seats.
In some reports, there was talk of a possible proposal of 60 to 70 seats from the Samajwadi Party. But now Congress has stated its minimum claim of 150 seats. This means that the party wants a bigger stake in the seat sharing talks than before.
Is responsibility to Imran Masood a part of this strategy?
On Gandhi Jayanti i.e. 2nd October, Congress made a major change in the UP organization and made Saharanpur MP Imran Masood the working president. This appointment is important in view of his strong presence in the politics of West UP. Imran Masood has won the Lok Sabha elections from Saharanpur in 2024.
His role in the new organization of Congress is being seen as a strong political message to increase the party's reach to West UP and Muslim voters as well as in seat sharing talks with SP. However, Congress has not said that his appointment has been made only for seat sharing.
What is the message of Congress by making Aradhana Mishra the president?
Congress has made three-time Rampur Khas MLA Aradhana Mishra 'Mona' the president of UP Congress. She is the daughter of senior Congress leader Pramod Tiwari. His consecutive election wins from Rampur Khas seat shows his organizational and electoral base for the party. Along with them, giving different responsibilities to Imran Masood, Devinder Nishad and Alok Prasad is also important from the point of view of social equation. The message of Brahmin, Muslim, OBC and Dalit representation is clearly visible in the new team.
Will the Congress-SP formula of 2024 be repeated again?
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress and SP together won 43 out of 80 seats in UP. SP got 37 seats and Congress 6 seats. In that election, Congress had contested on 17 seats. But the number of seats and local equations in the assembly elections will be completely different. Therefore, whether the formula of 2024 will be directly implemented in 2027 is not decided yet. Congress's claim of 150 seats shows that this time the party wants talks on more seats than in 2024.
How important is the election experience of 2022 in 2027?
There was no alliance between SP and Congress in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Congress had contested elections on 399 seats and won only 2 seats. Whereas Samajwadi Party fielded candidates on 347 seats and won 111 seats. SP's alliance was with RLD, SubhaSP and other allies. That is, Congress had contested separate elections in 2022, whereas for 2027, both the parties are again discussing the possibilities of alliance.
Can the Bihar formula be implemented in UP?
Even in the Bihar Assembly elections, there were long talks between Congress and its allies regarding seats. Congress had initially demanded about 70 seats, whereas in the final agreement it got 61 seats and RJD contested on 135 seats. Even in UP, there may be scope for difference between the initial demand and the final agreement during negotiations. But the size, political equation and past performance of SP-Congress of UP is different from Bihar.
Let us mention here that there was no alliance between Aam Aadmi Party and Congress in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections. Both the parties had contested the elections separately after there was no agreement on seat sharing. Even in Bengal, the equation of seats and alliance between Congress and Trinamool Congress is different from that of UP. Therefore, instead of implementing any other state's formula exactly in UP, the possibility of a compromise is being discussed on the basis of the situation of local seats, the strength of the candidates and the performance of 2024.
What are the options before Akhilesh Yadav?
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav's emphasis till now has been on the fact that in the alliance, not only the number of seats but also the winning ability of the candidates i.e. 'winnability' will be seen. To prepare for 2027, SP has started organizing organizations and candidates for a large number of seats. Reports have revealed that the party is preparing for about 350 seats. In such a situation, Congress's claim of 150 seats and SP's extensive seat preparation make talks between the two parties important.
Have you given a direct message to SP?
If we look at the organizational changes of Congress and the public claim of 150 seats together, then the party has definitely given a political indication that it wants to keep its role bigger in 2027 than in 2024. But the final seat distribution has not been decided yet. Who will get how many seats in the talks between Congress and SP will be decided with the consent of the top leadership of both the parties. Therefore, for the time being, it would be more accurate to see this not as the final condition of the Congress, but as its declared starting position in the talks.