- The discussion about rice export is intense
- India's rice production is likely to decline
- Supply may be affected
New Delhi : After sugar, the discussion about India's rice exports has intensified. India's rice exports may decline by 4 percent to 24 million tonnes in 2027. According to a US Department of Agriculture report, supply may be affected by a decline in broken rice and white rice exports, rising domestic prices and a reduction in the amount of rice available for export.
India accounts for more than 40 percent of global rice exports. As a result, a decline in the country's production and exports may affect the international market. According to the USDA, strong El Niño conditions have significantly affected the monsoon, which may continue. This could lead to a 4.5 percent decline in India's rice production to 147 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year. Suraj Aggarwal, co-founder and CEO of Rice Villa, said low rainfall is likely to reduce production, leading to higher rice prices in the domestic market.
In the current kharif season, the area under paddy has declined by 3.7% to 42.92 million hectares as compared to the previous season. Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu saw a significant decline in the area under paddy cultivation. According to the data, the area under paddy cultivation decreased by 4.6 lakh hectares in Karnataka, 4.3 lakh hectares in Telangana, 1.8 lakh hectares in Andhra Pradesh and 1.5 lakh hectares in Tamil Nadu. Decline in area under rice cultivation and lack of rainfall may affect future production.
India's rice production down for the first time since 2015-16?
India's rice production may decline for the first time since 2015-16. In the 2025-26 crop year, India was projected to become the world's largest rice producer, producing an estimated 154 million tonnes of rice. The USDA has lowered its global rice trade forecast for 2027 by 1.3 million tonnes. Given India's share of 40-45% in global exports, this reduction in supply may affect availability, prices in international markets.
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