New Delhi, October 17 (IANS). Globally, the price of crude oil may come down to $ 80 per barrel in 2027. The reason for this is the resumption of supply from the Middle East and the possibility of supply going into surplus compared to demand in the market. This information was given in a new report.
The Goldman Sachs report said that prices may remain high for a long time due to the re-intensification of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
Revising its near-term forecast, the investment bank expects the price of benchmark Brent to be $90 per barrel in December 2026, from $85 per barrel earlier. At the same time, it is expected to be on average $80 per barrel in 2027.
The global supply shortfall has narrowed significantly due to an improvement in oil exports from the Middle East, increased production outside the Persian Gulf and reduced demand.
As exporters adapted to the conflict and increased transportation capacity, Persian Gulf oil exports returned to near 2025 average levels by the end of September.
However, prices remain high due to supply risks. Prices of 'Physical Brent crude' for near-term delivery have crossed $130 per barrel, while benchmark Brent futures have recently been trading above $100 per barrel.
According to the investment bank, the market was roughly balanced in September. Demand exceeded supply by only 0.3 million barrels per day, compared to a deficit of 7.2 million barrels per day in March.
The report estimates that the global oil market will enter a state of surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026 and will remain in surplus in 2027, which is likely to lead to lower prices in the future. Crude oil prices currently include a 'risk premium' of about $25 per barrel. This is because as the conflict escalates, supplies may be disrupted and more of the existing stock may have to be used.
On the demand front, global oil consumption in China, the Middle East and developed Asian economies has remained quite weak.
The report predicts that demand will gradually improve as the availability of refined oil products increases and they become more affordable.
This weekend, the price of Brent crude reached $ 110 per barrel, which is the first time since May. This happened as expectations of the supply situation improving in the near future faded and ahead of the weekend traders started betting on further price rises.
–IANS
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