US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Mumbai on Tuesday (October 20) afternoon, at a time when there are signs of optimism in an otherwise bleak year for India-US ties.
The immediate reason is growing confidence on both sides that a long-awaited bilateral trade agreement could be wrapped up soon. Rubio himself has said about the deal: “We’re very, very close. We’re about as close as you can be without having an executed agreement. There’s a small number of items left to wrap up, I think that will happen shortly.”
Fuel relief
Another source of relief for New Delhi is Washington’s decision to put potential sanctions over India’s purchases of Russian oil on hold. Rubio has acknowledged that progress on the trade deal was among the factors considered in the decision. The US has also signed a deal to buy diesel from Russia, underscoring the role that domestic energy needs can play in shaping Washington’s policy towards Moscow.
Also read: Mumbai: Jaishankar, Rubio, Al Nahyan discuss energy security, economic priorities
Rubio met with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and discussed trade, energy, defence and critical technologies. After the meeting, Jaishankar posted on X, “Pleased to meet US @SecRubio in Mumbai today. We shared views on further advancement of our ties, focusing on trade, energy, technology, defence and people to people ties. Also exchanged views on regional developments.”
Besides this, the MEA did not give out a readout or a statement on the talks. Jaishankar was the guest of honour in the celebrations of America’s 250 years held in Mumbai.
Reliance, Venezuelan crude, and a Texas refinery
Rubio’s visit has a strong business and commercial focus, with meetings with Indian business leaders and a visit to Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat on Wednesday.
The Reliance refinery has used Venezuelan crude in the past and Rubio would encourage Ambani to buy more from there. Reliance is also in a position to sell diesel, and other refined petroleum products to the US.
Also read: ‘India cannot stop buying Russian oil overnight’, says Rubio as Trump reviews sanctions
Rubio is said to be taking major decisions on Venezuela and is the Trump administration’s pointsperson on the South American nation. The Ambanis are also slated to invest in a huge refinery in Texas as the family builds enduring commercial and business ties with the US.
Midterm concerns
For the Trump administration, easing energy costs ahead of the November midterm elections is an important consideration. Diesel prices affect American truckers, farmers and shippers. Rubio’s emphasis on understanding India’s energy needs, therefore, comes at a time when Washington itself is having to balance its policy towards Russia against domestic economic pressures.
The visit offers an opportunity to steady a relationship strained by tariffs, Russian oil and other disagreements. But the optimism will need to translate into concrete progress on trade and a more predictable relationship. For now, the prospect of a deal offers both sides a reason to put the recent strains behind them, even if the underlying differences remain.